Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Best on the board right now
Nothing has made the Cut. The strongest call on the board is Damn Near Nasty. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A ratings read. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so this tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
Where, best first (Bills):- Guido+3.5 -115edge +1.8%
- Caesars +2+3.5 -118edge +1.1%
- DraftKings+3 +100edge +1.1%
- Fanatics+3.5 -120edge +0.7%
- Kalshi+3.5 -121 (53¢)edge +0.5%
- 1 more at worse prices
Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but 8 come damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.
Pittsburgh at Boston College, Pittsburgh -6.5. Every system has Pittsburgh by 12; the market has Pittsburgh by 6.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -6.5.
If you're playing one, it's Pittsburgh at Boston College, Pittsburgh -6.5. The ratings make it Pittsburgh by 12. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.
Buck
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. The Cut is a main book a point or more off Pinnacle's number, and it switches on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Damn Near Nasty
6 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
A ratings read. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so this tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
Where, best first (Bills):- Guido+3.5 -115edge +1.8%
- Caesars +2+3.5 -118edge +1.1%
- DraftKings+3 +100edge +1.1%
- Fanatics+3.5 -120edge +0.7%
- Kalshi+3.5 -121 (53¢)edge +0.5%
- 1 more at worse prices
5 more later this week
A ratings read. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so this tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
Where, best first (Pittsburgh):- FanDuel-6.5 -102edge +6.9%
- Fanatics +1-6 -110edge +6.4%
- DraftKings-6.5 -105edge +6.2%
- Caesars-6.5 -109edge +5.2%
- DraftKings Predictions-6.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge +2.3%
A ratings read. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so this tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
Where, best first (Indiana to win):- Kalshi+146 (39¢)edge +4.7%
- DraftKings+140edge +3.8%
- Caesars+138edge +3.4%
- BetMGM +1+135edge +2.9%
- FanDuel+128edge +1.6%
- 1 more at worse prices
A ratings read. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so this tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
Where, best first (Army):- Caesars-2.5 -114edge +4.1%
- FanDuel-2.5 -115edge +3.8%
- BetMGM-3 -102edge +3.6%
- DraftKings-2.5 -118edge +3.2%
- Fanatics-3 -105edge +2.9%
- 2 more at worse prices
A ratings read. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so this tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
Where, best first (Washington):- FanDuel+3.5 -118edge +3.8%
- BetMGM+3 -105edge +3.6%
- Fanatics+3.5 -120edge +3.4%
- DraftKings +1+3 -108edge +2.9%
- Guido+3 -109edge +2.7%
- 2 more at worse prices
A ratings read. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so this tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
Where, best first (Southern Miss):- DraftKings +1+7 -112edge +2.5%
- Caesars +1+7 -115edge +1.9%
- FanDuel+6.5 -105edge +0.6%
A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: East Carolina at UAB, East Carolina -4. The line has moved 1.5 points our way since it opened. Still a sneaky. Misses the Cut: needs edge 3%.
6 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (East Carolina):- BetMGM-4 -110edge +0.9%
- Kalshi-4.5 -107 (50¢)edge +0.2%
- FanDuel-3.5 -120edge -0.0%
- Caesars-4.5 -109edge -0.2%
- DraftKings +1-4.5 -110edge -0.4%
- 2 more at worse prices
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Jacksonville State):- BetMGM-3 -102edge +2.1%
- FanDuel-2.5 -118edge +1.8%
- DraftKings-3 -108edge +0.7%
- Caesars-3 -109edge +0.5%
- Kalshi-2.5 -126 (54¢)edge +0.3%
- 1 more at worse prices
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Texas):- BetMGM-9.5 -112edge +1.4%
- Caesars-10 -106edge +1.1%
- FanDuel-9.5 -115edge +0.8%
- Fanatics-10 -110edge +0.2%
- DraftKings-9.5 -118edge +0.1%
- 2 more at worse prices
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Tennessee):- Fanatics+7 -115edge +0.1%
- Caesars+6.5 -105edge -1.0%
- FanDuel+6.5 -106edge -1.2%
- DraftKings +1+6.5 -108edge -1.7%
- DraftKings Predictions+6.5 -117 (52¢ on the app)edge -3.7%
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Penn State):- BetMGM+6 -105edge +1.1%
- FanDuel+5.5 -102edge +0.5%
- Caesars+6.5 -113edge +0.4%
- DraftKings+6.5 -115edge -0.0%
- Fanatics+6 -115edge -1.2%
- 2 more at worse prices
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Houston to win):- FanDuel-178edge +1.6%
- Caesars-182edge +1.1%
- DraftKings +1-185edge +0.7%
- Fanatics-190edge +0.1%
- DraftKings Predictions-203 (65¢ on the app)edge -1.4%
Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty
Totals only, ranked by edge, each posted at the number shown and graded there in its own record. Not a Nasty Pick; size it that way.
How a total is read
Two numbers read every total: the model (each team's pace, efficiency and scoring this season, the weather and the market, fitted on four seasons) and the pace number (plays times points per play). College posts when the total opens 2 or more off the model with the pace number on the same side, or 3 off either alone; the read is good for about 12 hours. The NFL posts when the model sits 4 or more off the market, any day of the week; it is the newest number here with the shortest record. Team totals and first-half totals read the pace number at 3 points scaled to their size. The edge is the backtest's win chance on a gap that size less what the price costs: low single digits at best, and the ranking is the point.
27 more
Moved closer since the 3:00pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 3:00pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- East Carolina at UAB Thu 15 Oct, 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -4.5 to -4.0; the market drifted 0.7 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Delaware at Middle Tennessee Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Delaware -1.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The price from -115 to -107. - Ball State at Bowling Green Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Ball State +9.0: 1.5 points away, was 2.0.The price from -115 to -114. - Georgia State at James Madison Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at James Madison -10.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The price from -110 to -108. - Northwestern at Michigan State Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Northwestern -8.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +9.5 to -8.5.
Key and ratings status
Today
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsNFL Ravens +3Nasty Number Falcons by 2.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 6 pts
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 6 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ravens is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -117 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +105 | 43 -117 | -171 | +153 |
All 26 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -117 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -113 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -117 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -113 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -113 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3 -118 | 43.5 -114 | -176 | +149 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -114 | -172 | +144 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +105 | 43.5 -107 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -172 | +146 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +105 | 43 -117 | -171 | +153 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -108 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3 -125 | 43.5 -110 | -172 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings+3 +100edge +4.7%
- Caesars +1+3 -102edge +4.2%
- Fanatics+3.5 -120edge +4.0%
- Guido+3 -103edge +4.0%
- Kalshi +1+3.5 -121edge +3.8%
- 1 more at worse prices
- Caesars+149edge +4.3%
- Kalshi +4+146edge +3.8%
- FanDuel +1+144 (39¢ on the app)edge +3.5%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.7 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
QB out: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Cam Jurgens (C, Ravens), Yasir Abdullah (LB, Falcons), Trey Hendrickson (LB, Ravens) and 1 more.
Guido: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
Guido: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
DraftKings has Falcons -3 while Pinnacle is at Falcons by 3.5. Not a Nasty Pick: under a point off Pinnacle.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +110 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -126 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +194 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +162 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens +3.0 | -103 | -121 | +4.0% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | +145 | +125 | +3.7% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 9.7 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 6.3.
Guido: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Tomorrow
1 game1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Bills at Rams, Bills +3.5.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsNFL Bills +3.5should be Bills +3 · getting 0.5 pts at Guido · was +2.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Bills +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, edge +1.8%, the ratings bar is 3%. That's Buck's read on the game: the Four, blended, against the number. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so a ratings read tops out here. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Bills's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 54.5 -102 | -174 | +153 |
All 26 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -104 | 54 -112 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -108 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -104 | 54 -112 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 54 -112 | -177 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 54 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -112 | -176 | +147 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -107 | 54.5 -113 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3 -120 | 54.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 54.5 -110 | -176 | +148 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -107 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -186 | +150 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 54.5 -102 | -174 | +153 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 54.5 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -182 | +154 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Guido+3.5 -115edge +1.8%
- Caesars +2+3.5 -118edge +1.1%
- DraftKings+3 +100edge +1.1%
- Fanatics+3.5 -120edge +0.7%
- Kalshi+3.5 -121 (53¢)edge +0.5%
- 1 more at worse prices
- BetMGM+150edge +1.2%
- FanDuel +1+148edge +0.8%
- Kalshi +3+146edge +0.4%
- DraftKings Predictions+138 (40¢ on the app)edge -0.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bills +3.5 · -115 at Guido. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Bills, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $55 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Joshua Palmer (WR, Bills), Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams) and 3 more.
Guido: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus.
Caesars has Bills +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 3. Not a Nasty Pick: under a point off Pinnacle.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | -115 | -123 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +145 | +143 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Los Angeles Rams since 10-05 08:06; total has moved up 0.9.
Guido: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus.
Tue Oct 13
2 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Jacksonville State, Florida International at Jacksonville StateFlorida International Panthers at Jacksonville State GamecocksCFB Jacksonville State -3should be Jacksonville State -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was -2A Little Nasty · Jacksonville StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jacksonville State. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 3.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -148 58¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 43.5 -113 | -147 | +125 |
All 20 books
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -148 58¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -117 | -134 | +108 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -117 | -134 | +108 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -118 | -134 | +108 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 44 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 43.5 -118 | -142 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 44 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -108 | -142 | +118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 44 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -148 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 43.5 -113 | -147 | +125 |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 43.5 -119 | -151 | +118 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Jacksonville State, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-3 -102edge +2.1%
- FanDuel-2.5 -118edge +1.8%
- DraftKings-3 -108edge +0.7%
- Caesars-3 -109edge +0.5%
- Kalshi-2.5 -126 (54¢)edge +0.3%
- 1 more at worse prices
- FanDuel +1-142edge +2.0%
- Fanatics +1-145edge +1.5%
- Kalshi-148 (58¢)edge +1.0%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State -3.0 · -102 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Jacksonville State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers +2.5, only $436 available; Florida International Panthers ML, only $21 available; Over 43.5, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -196 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -151 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -182 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -193 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3.0 | -102 | -111 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | -142 | -154 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 10-08 13:15; total has moved down 1.9.
Guido: total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.
Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersCFB Delaware -2.5Nasty Number Delaware by 2.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Delaware by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +2.5 -113 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +116 | -135 |
All 20 books
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +2.5 -113 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 +104 | 48.5 -109 | +120 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 48.5 -108 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2 +104 | 48.5 -109 | +120 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +2 +104 | 48.5 -109 | +120 | -148 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 48.5 -106 | +116 | -137 |
| Courtside | +3 -106 | 48.5 -106 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +115 | -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 +110 | 48.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -101 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +113 | -138 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +116 | -135 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 48.5 -114 | +111 | -141 |
Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Guido-2.5 -107edge -0.3%
- FanDuel +1-2.5 -115edge -2.1%
- Caesars-2.5 -117edge -2.5%
- BetMGM-2.5 -118edge -2.7%
- DraftKings Predictions-2.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -3.6%
- 1 more at worse prices
- DraftKings-135edge -1.3%
- Caesars +1-137edge -1.7%
- Fanatics +1-140edge -2.2%
- Kalshi-143 (57¢)edge -2.6%
- DraftKings Predictions-144 (57¢ on the app)edge -2.9%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Delaware).
Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens -2.5, only $399 available; Over 48.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +133 |
| FPI | +3.5 | +165 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +190 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -114 |
| Market (17 books) | +2.5 | +127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens -2.5 | -107 | -106 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | -138 | -128 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 10-08 13:15; total has moved up 2.0.
Guido: total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wed Oct 14
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State BearsCFB Kennesaw State -3Nasty Number Kennesaw State by 3 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 3, the Nasty Number says Kennesaw State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Kennesaw State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +3 +100 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 50.5 | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 51.5 -109 | +139 | -164 |
All 22 books
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Kennesaw State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +3 +100 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 50.5 | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -122 | 50.5 -110 | +128 | -157 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 51.5 -105 | +138 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +100 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3.5 -122 | 50.5 -110 | +128 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -122 | 50.5 -112 | +128 | -159 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -118 | 51.5 -107 | +135 | -159 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -116 | 51.5 +100 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -118 | 51.5 -102 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -104 | +142 | -172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +104 | 51.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +147 | -181 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 51.5 -109 | +139 | -164 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +138 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -116 | 50.5 -125 | +144 | -186 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for the Missouri State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics-3 -115edge -1.7%
- DraftKings-3.5 -102edge -2.3%
- Caesars-3.5 -103edge -2.6%
- Guido-3 -120edge -2.7%
- DraftKings Predictions +1-3.5 -104 (49¢ on the app)edge -2.8%
- 1 more at worse prices
- Kalshi-148 (58¢)edge +0.2%
- Caesars +1-159edge -1.5%
- DraftKings +1-162 (60¢ on the app)edge -1.9%
- BetMGM-165edge -2.4%
- FanDuel-172edge -3.3%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 97% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Missouri State).
Kalshi thin: Kennesaw State Owls -3.5, only $145 available; Over 50.5, only $1 available; Kennesaw State Owls ML, only $385 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +199 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +138 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +165 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -123 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | -148 | -149 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls -3.0 | -115 | -108 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri State Bears since 10-10 20:03; total has moved up 0.8.
Guido matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston State BearkatsCFB Western Kentucky +1Nasty Number Western Kentucky by 1 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Sam Houston by 1, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 1. 1.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 1.5 to Sam Houston by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -1 -104 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 | — | -126 54¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -103 | -113 |
All 22 books
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -1 -104 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 | — | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +100 | -124 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | -102 | -118 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +100 | -124 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 50.5 -117 | +100 | -124 |
| BetUS | PK -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -104 | -115 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | -103 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 51.5 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -118 | 51.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -106 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -105 | -116 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -103 | -113 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | +1.5 -119 | 51.5 -114 | -107 | -118 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -105 | -115 |
Marked: best for the Sam Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Guido+1 -116edge -1.5%
- FanDuel-1.5 -104edge -2.7%
- Fanatics-1 -110edge -2.8%
- DraftKings +1-1.5 -108edge -3.6%
- Caesars-1.5 -109edge -3.9%
- 1 more at worse prices
- FanDuel-110edge -1.4%
- DraftKings +2-115edge -2.5%
- BetMGM-118edge -3.2%
- Kalshi-126 (54¢)edge -4.7%
- DraftKings Predictions-127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.0%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
Kalshi thin: Sam Houston State Bearkats +1.5, only $486 available; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1.5, only $3 available; Over 51.5, only $229 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread -1.0 here against +1.2 consensus.
Guido: total 52.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +177 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.0 | +106 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +1.0 | -116 | -109 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
Guido: spread -1.0 here against +1.2 consensus; total 52.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Oct 15
3 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · East Carolina, East Carolina at UABEast Carolina Pirates at UAB BlazersCFB East Carolina -4Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be East Carolina -5.5 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGM · was -5.5A Little Nasty · East CarolinaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, East Carolina. Market says East Carolina by 4.5, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 5.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in East Carolina's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | East Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +4.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | — | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -105 | 49 -113 | +159 | -191 |
All 21 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | East Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +4.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | — | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -112 | 51.5 -103 | +170 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +4 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +160 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -112 | 51.5 -103 | +170 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -113 | 51.5 -104 | +170 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +4 -105 | 49 -115 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | +163 | -197 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -102 | 49.5 -106 | +158 | -192 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +169 | -212 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -105 | 49 -113 | +159 | -191 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +170 | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 49.5 -111 | +162 | -220 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for East Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-4 -110edge +0.9%
- Kalshi-4.5 -107 (50¢)edge +0.2%
- FanDuel-3.5 -120edge -0.0%
- Caesars-4.5 -109edge -0.2%
- DraftKings +1-4.5 -110edge -0.4%
- 2 more at worse prices
- BetMGM +1-190edge +0.4%
- FanDuel +1-192edge +0.2%
- Fanatics-195edge -0.2%
- Caesars-197edge -0.4%
- DraftKings Predictions-212 (66¢ on the app)edge -2.0%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is East Carolina -4.0 · -110 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.5 away from East Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers ML, only $494 available; East Carolina Pirates ML, only $330 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread +4.5 here against +4.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +273 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +279 |
| Sagarin | +6.0 | +205 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +305 |
| Market (17 books) | +4.5 | +180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -4.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -194 | -194 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UAB Blazers since 10-11 10:17; total has moved down 3.3.
Guido: spread +4.5 here against +4.2 consensus.
Colorado State Rams at Texas State BobcatsCFB Colorado State +12.5Nasty Number Texas State by 11.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 11.5, but the market has moved 3.2 points away from Colorado State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -12.5 -115 | 68 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 67.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -111 | 68.5 -107 | -537 | +382 |
All 22 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -12.5 -115 | 68 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 67.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -120 | 67.5 -110 | -715 | +460 |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -110 | 68.5 -108 | -475 | +375 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -115 | 68 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -11.5 -120 | 67.5 -110 | -715 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -121 | 67.5 -110 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -115 | 68 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -13 -115 | 68.5 -105 | -550 | +390 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -115 | 68 -108 | -480 | +370 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -110 | 68.5 -103 | -483 | +392 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 68.5 -105 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 66.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 68 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 68.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -120 | 67.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -111 | 68 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 68.5 -110 | -481 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -111 | 68.5 -107 | -537 | +382 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -426 | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 68.5 -111 | -500 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -115 | 68.5 -105 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics+13.5 -110edge +0.6%
- Caesars +1+12.5 -105edge +0.4%
- DraftKings +1+12.5 -108edge -0.3%
- FanDuel+12.5 -110edge -0.8%
- DraftKings Predictions+13.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -2.1%
- Fanatics+390edge +0.0%
- DraftKings+380edge -0.4%
- BetMGM+375edge -0.6%
- Caesars+370edge -0.9%
- Kalshi+351 (21¢)edge -1.8%
- 2 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -12.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Colorado State Rams +13.5, only $442 available; Colorado State Rams ML, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: total 68.0 here against 68.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -330 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -310 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -309 |
| Market (18 books) | -12.5 | -482 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 68.0 | 73.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +12.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +380 | +390 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 68.0 | -115 | -129 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Texas State Bobcats since 10-08 13:15; total has moved up 4.8.
Guido: total 68.0 here against 68.3 consensus.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion MonarchsCFB Georgia Southern -4Nasty Number Georgia Southern by 3.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 4, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia Southern by 4.5 to Georgia Southern by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 50 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 +105 47¢ | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -105 | 47.5 -106 | +150 | -179 |
All 22 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 +105 47¢ | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 48.5 -109 | +135 | -167 |
| BetMGM | +4 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +155 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 48.5 -109 | +135 | -167 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | +135 | -167 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +3.5 -105 | 47 -115 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +4 -112 | 47 -113 | +150 | -179 |
| Courtside | +4 -108 | 47.5 +100 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +4 -110 | 47.5 -102 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | +146 | -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -106 | 47 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +159 | -197 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -105 | 47.5 -106 | +150 | -179 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +150 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | +152 | -206 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 +100 | 46.5 -120 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings +2+4 -110edge -0.5%
- Caesars+4 -112edge -1.0%
- Kalshi+3.5 -107 (50¢)edge -1.3%
- DraftKings Predictions+3.5 -108 (50¢ on the app)edge -1.5%
- Fanatics+4 -115edge -1.6%
- 1 more at worse prices
- BetMGM +1+155edge -0.4%
- Fanatics +1+150edge -1.2%
- FanDuel +1+146edge -1.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+138 (40¢ on the app)edge -3.2%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles -3.5, only $52 available; Under 48.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
Guido: total 47.0 here against 47.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +114 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +186 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +164 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -135 |
| Market (18 books) | +4.0 | +165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +4.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +150 | +158 | -1.2% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-11 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
Guido: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus; total 47.0 here against 47.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Oct 16
3 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Washington at Purdue, Washington +3.5.Washington Huskies at Purdue BoilermakersCFB Washington +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Washington +2 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Washington +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, edge +3.8%, the ratings bar is 4% for this Sauce. That's Buck's read on the game: the Four, blended, against the number. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so a ratings read tops out here. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Washington's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -111 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -162 | +137 |
All 22 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -111 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 51.5 -113 | -148 | +123 |
| BetMGM | -3 -112 | 52.5 -108 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -111 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 51.5 -113 | -148 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 51.5 -114 | -150 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -159 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 51.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 52.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 51.5 -115 | -154 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -107 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -163 | +132 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -162 | +137 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +138 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 52.5 -114 | -170 | +127 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Washington, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel+3.5 -118edge +3.8%
- BetMGM+3 -105edge +3.6%
- Fanatics+3.5 -120edge +3.4%
- DraftKings +1+3 -108edge +2.9%
- Guido+3 -109edge +2.7%
- 2 more at worse prices
- Fanatics +1+140edge +4.6%
- DraftKings +1+136edge +3.9%
- BetMGM+130edge +2.8%
- FanDuel+128edge +2.4%
- DraftKings Predictions+117 (44¢ on the app)edge +0.2%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Washington +3.5 · -118 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 54°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: total 53.5 here against 52.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +116 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -124 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +286 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Huskies +3.5 | -118 | -138 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | Washington Huskies ML | +135 | +116 | +3.7% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
Guido: total 53.5 here against 52.4 consensus.
Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green WaveCFB Tulane +6.5Nasty Number Memphis by 6 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Memphis by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -103 | 53.5 -110 | +205 | -252 |
All 22 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -115 | 53.5 -113 | +205 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -108 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7 -115 | 53.5 -113 | +205 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +7 -117 | 53.5 -114 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +210 | -260 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -103 | 53.5 -108 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +202 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +214 | -275 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -103 | 53.5 -110 | +205 | -252 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +212 | — |
| ReBet | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -114 | +204 | -285 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel +3+6.5 -105edge -0.2%
- Caesars+6.5 -108edge -0.9%
- Guido+6.5 -110edge -1.4%
- DraftKings Predictions+6.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -4.0%
- Fanatics +2+210edge +0.6%
- DraftKings+205edge +0.1%
- FanDuel+202edge -0.2%
- BetMGM+200edge -0.5%
- DraftKings Predictions+178 (34¢ on the app)edge -3.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave +6.5, only $2 available; Memphis Tigers -6.5, only $402 available; Over 53.5, only $105 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +374 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +181 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -110 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +232 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +205 | +204 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +6.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Guido matches the consensus.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersCFB App State +1Nasty Number App State by 1 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Coastal Carolina by 1, the Nasty Number says App State by 1. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Coastal Carolina by 1.5 to Coastal Carolina by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -1 -105 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -121 53¢ | — | -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -106 | 52 -110 | -101 | -116 |
All 21 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -1 -105 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -121 53¢ | — | -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -113 | 53.5 +102 | -118 | -105 |
| BetMGM | +1 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -105 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1 -113 | 53.5 +102 | -118 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -1 -113 | 53.5 +102 | -118 | -105 |
| BetUS | +1 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -110 | 52 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -113 | 52 -110 | +100 | -118 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | +100 | -116 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 51.5 -115 | -102 | -118 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 52 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -114 | 52.5 -105 | -108 | -111 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 53.5 +100 | -120 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -101 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 52 -110 | -105 | -116 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -106 | 52 -110 | -101 | -116 |
| ReBet | -0.5 -109 | 51.5 -116 | -110 | -121 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -105 | -115 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Guido+1 -115edge -1.6%
- Fanatics +1-1 -110edge -3.0%
- FanDuel-1.5 -106edge -3.4%
- Caesars-1.5 -107edge -3.7%
- DraftKings-1.5 -108edge -3.9%
- 1 more at worse prices
- FanDuel-111edge -1.9%
- Fanatics +1-115edge -2.8%
- DraftKings +1-118edge -3.4%
- Kalshi-121 (53¢)edge -4.1%
- DraftKings Predictions-132 (55¢ on the app)edge -6.3%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +0.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Coastal Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers -1.5, only $50 available; Over 51.5, only $68 available; Under 51.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread -1.0 here against +0.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.5 | +112 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +142 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.0 | +105 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +1.0 | -115 | -108 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | -115 | -103 | -2.8% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 10-11 06:03; total has moved down 1.4.
Guido: spread -1.0 here against +0.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sat Oct 17
49 games6 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Pittsburgh at Boston College, Pittsburgh -6.5.Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College EaglesCFB Pittsburgh -6.5should be Pittsburgh -8 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Pittsburgh -6.5: all 4 ratings our side, edge +6.9%; a ratings read tops out here. That's Buck's read on the game: the Four, blended, against the number. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so a ratings read tops out here. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | — | +181 34¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -118 | 44 -112 | +184 | -224 |
All 20 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | — | +181 34¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -108 | 43.5 -113 | +190 | -235 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 43.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +6 -108 | 43.5 -113 | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 43.5 -113 | +188 | -240 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 44 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +179 | -213 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -113 | 43.5 -116 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -115 | 43.5 -118 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6 -110 | 44 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | +176 | -215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -106 | 43.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 44 -110 | +200 | -255 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -118 | 44 -112 | +184 | -224 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -116 | 44.5 -109 | +191 | -265 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel-6.5 -102edge +6.9%
- Fanatics +1-6 -110edge +6.4%
- DraftKings-6.5 -105edge +6.2%
- Caesars-6.5 -109edge +5.2%
- DraftKings Predictions-6.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge +2.3%
- Caesars-213edge +6.3%
- FanDuel-215edge +6.1%
- BetMGM-220edge +5.6%
- Fanatics +1-225edge +5.1%
- Kalshi-239 (69¢)edge +3.8%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh -6.5 · -102 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 52°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers -5.5, only $55 available; Over 44.5, only $70 available; Under 44.5, only $380 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +379 |
| FPI | +13.5 | +439 |
| Sagarin | +13.0 | +435 |
| Massey | +10.5 | +368 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +208 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 41.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 | -102 | -135 | +6.9% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -213 | -290 | +6.3% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.6.
The Four clear the old bar here, but the Cut is a book off the sharp number now. A ratings read tops out at Damn Near Nasty: Buck's read on the game, not a Nasty Pick.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana HoosiersCFB Indiana +3should be Indiana +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Indiana to win: all 4 ratings our side, edge +4.7%; a ratings read tops out here. That's Buck's read on the game: the Four, blended, against the number. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so a ratings read tops out here. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Indiana is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +3 -105 | 51 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 51.5 -110 | +137 | -162 |
All 22 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +3 -105 | 51 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -105 | 51.5 -107 | +135 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -105 | 51.5 -107 | +135 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 51.5 -109 | +133 | -167 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +3 -105 | 51.5 -107 | +138 | -164 |
| Courtside | +3 -106 | 51.5 -110 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 51.5 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 51.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +133 | -164 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 51.5 -110 | +137 | -162 |
| Polymarket | — | 52.5 +100 | — | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -128 | 51.5 -111 | +128 | -171 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 51.5 -115 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for Indiana, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM +3+3 -105edge +2.8%
- FanDuel+3.5 -120edge +2.7%
- DraftKings+3 -108edge +2.1%
- Kalshi+3.5 -126 (54¢)edge +1.5%
- DraftKings Predictions+3.5 -138 (56¢ on the app)edge -0.7%
- Kalshi+146 (39¢)edge +4.7%
- DraftKings+140edge +3.8%
- Caesars+138edge +3.4%
- BetMGM +1+135edge +2.9%
- FanDuel+128edge +1.6%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Indiana +3.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 51°F.
Kalshi thin: Indiana Hoosiers ML, only $390 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | +100 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +101 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | +146 | +120 | +4.7% |
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers +3.0 | -105 | -117 | +2.8% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.7.
Guido: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
The Four clear the old bar here, but the Cut is a book off the sharp number now. A ratings read tops out at Damn Near Nasty: Buck's read on the game, not a Nasty Pick.
Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black KnightsCFB Army -2.5should be Army -3.5 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Army -2.5: SP+ is the holdout at Army by 2; the other 3 of 4 our side, edge +4.1%. One system is across the market, and a ratings read tops out here anyway: the Cut is a book off the sharp number. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Army's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 56.5 -110 | -146 | +124 |
All 21 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -3 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -124 | 55.5 -114 | -152 | +123 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 55.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -124 | 55.5 -114 | -152 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -125 | 55.5 -115 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -110 | -141 | +120 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -116 | 56.5 -108 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -138 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -138 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 56.5 -110 | -146 | +124 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 55.5 -116 | -153 | +115 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Army, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars-2.5 -114edge +4.1%
- FanDuel-2.5 -115edge +3.8%
- BetMGM-3 -102edge +3.6%
- DraftKings-2.5 -118edge +3.2%
- Fanatics-3 -105edge +2.9%
- 2 more at worse prices
- FanDuel-138edge +4.0%
- Caesars-141edge +3.5%
- BetMGM +1-145edge +2.8%
- DraftKings +1-148edge +2.3%
- DraftKings Predictions-170 (61¢ on the app)edge -0.9%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Army -2.5 · -114 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 52°F. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $56 available; Under 56.5, only $53 available; Army Black Knights ML, only $351 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -117 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -256 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -203 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -344 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -2.5 | -114 | -134 | +4.1% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -138 | -163 | +4.0% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
Guido matches the consensus.
SP+ is the holdout at Army by 2. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Mississippi Golden EaglesCFB Southern Miss +7should be Southern Miss +5.5 · getting 1.5 ptsDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Southern Miss +7.0: all 4 ratings our side, edge +3.0%, the ratings bar is 4% for this Sauce. That's Buck's read on the game: the Four, blended, against the number. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so a ratings read tops out here. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 60.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Southern Miss spread | Total (over) | Southern Miss ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -276 72¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -109 | 60.5 -110 | +223 | -279 |
All 18 books
| Southern Miss spread | Total (over) | Southern Miss ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -276 72¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -105 | 60.5 -117 | +205 | -265 |
| BetMGM | +7 -112 | 61.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -116 | 62 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +6.5 -105 | 60.5 -117 | +205 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -106 | 60.5 -118 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 62 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| Caesars | +7 -115 | 61.5 -112 | +215 | -265 |
| Courtside | +7 -110 | 61.5 -108 | +225 | -263 |
| DraftKings | +7 -112 | 61.5 -110 | +220 | -270 |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 61 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -112 | 62 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +212 | -270 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -109 | 60.5 -110 | +223 | -279 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 61.5 -111 | +202 | -285 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +220 | -270 |
Marked: best for Southern Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings +1+7 -112edge +2.5%
- Caesars +1+7 -115edge +1.9%
- FanDuel+6.5 -105edge +0.6%
- DraftKings +1+220edge +2.4%
- Caesars+215edge +1.9%
- BetMGM+210edge +1.4%
- FanDuel+205edge +0.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Southern Miss +7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $1 available; Under 60.5, only $56 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +210 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +103 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +182 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +107 |
| Market (17 books) | +7.0 | +249 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 61.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +7.0 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +213 | +197 | +1.7% |
| Total | Over 61.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.4.
Akron Zips at Miami (OH) RedHawksCFB Miami (OH) -10should be Miami (OH) -11 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Miami (OH) -10.0: all 4 ratings our side, edge +2.1%, the ratings bar is 3%. That's Buck's read on the game: the Four, blended, against the number. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so a ratings read tops out here. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The total
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -404 79¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -108 | 47 -110 | -404 | +304 |
All 19 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -404 79¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -117 | 46.5 -109 | -435 | +310 |
| BetMGM | -10 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -117 | 46.5 -109 | -435 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -118 | 46.5 -110 | -435 | +310 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -390 | +305 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 46.5 -116 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 46.5 -118 | -395 | +310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 45.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 47 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -429 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -108 | 47 -110 | -404 | +304 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -119 | -450 | +300 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -115 | 47.5 +100 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-10 -105edge +2.1%
- FanDuel-9.5 -115edge +1.5%
- DraftKings +2-10 -110edge +0.9%
- DraftKings Predictions-9.5 -138 (56¢ on the app)edge -2.9%
- Caesars-390edge -0.1%
- DraftKings-395edge -0.3%
- FanDuel +3-400edge -0.5%
- DraftKings Predictions-488 (81¢ on the app)edge -3.5%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -10.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 53°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -695 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -441 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -401 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -537 |
| Market (17 books) | -10.0 | -368 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -10.0 | -105 | -114 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -407 | -387 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Virginia Cavaliers at SMU MustangsCFB Virginia +8.5should be Virginia +7.5 · getting 1 pt at Caesars · was +8Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Virginia +8.5: all 4 ratings our side, edge +1.6%, the ratings bar is 3%. That's Buck's read on the game: the Four, blended, against the number. The Cut is a book off the sharp number, so a ratings read tops out here. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -107 | 53 -109 | -337 | +263 |
All 20 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -113 | 52.5 -110 | -305 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7.5 -113 | 52.5 -110 | -305 | +240 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -114 | 52.5 -112 | -305 | +235 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 53 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -115 | 52.5 -114 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -113 | -316 | +267 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 29¢ +223 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -310 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -350 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -107 | 53 -109 | -337 | +263 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | -370 | +255 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars+8.5 -105edge +1.6%
- Fanatics +2+8.5 -110edge +0.5%
- FanDuel+7.5 -105edge -0.5%
- DraftKings Predictions+8.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -4.1%
- Fanatics +2+260edge -0.6%
- Kalshi +1+252edge -1.2%
- FanDuel+245edge -1.8%
- DraftKings Predictions+223 (29¢ on the app)edge -3.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Virginia +8.5 · -105 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 65°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -8.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -9.5, only $51 available; Virginia Cavaliers +9.5, only $371 available; Over 52.5, only $112 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -233 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -185 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -178 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -203 |
| Market (18 books) | -8.5 | -300 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers +8.5 | -105 | -112 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | +260 | +268 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward SMU Mustangs since 10-11 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee VolunteersCFB Tennessee +7should be Tennessee +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +5A Little Nasty · TennesseeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Tennessee. Market says Alabama by 7, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -116 | 53 -119 | +213 | -264 |
All 21 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -115 | 53.5 -112 | +210 | -265 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -118 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7 -115 | 53.5 -112 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 53.5 -113 | +195 | -265 |
| BetUS | +7 -120 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +7 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -112 | +205 | -260 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -106 | 53.5 -106 | +220 | -258 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | +215 | -265 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | +202 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -114 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +202 | -255 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -116 | 53 -119 | +213 | -264 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +223 | -245 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 53.5 -114 | +193 | -270 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics+7 -115edge +0.1%
- Caesars+6.5 -105edge -1.0%
- FanDuel+6.5 -106edge -1.2%
- DraftKings +1+6.5 -108edge -1.7%
- DraftKings Predictions+6.5 -117 (52¢ on the app)edge -3.7%
- DraftKings+215edge +0.4%
- BetMGM +2+210edge -0.1%
- Caesars+205edge -0.6%
- FanDuel+202edge -1.0%
- DraftKings Predictions+186 (33¢ on the app)edge -2.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee +7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 60°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +5.0, now +7.0. The market has moved 1.8 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +7.5, only $5 available; Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +130 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +208 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +172 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +188 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 57.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers +7.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | +210 | +211 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-09 15:51; total has moved down 3.3.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan WolverinesCFB Penn State +6should be Penn State +5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +5.5A Little Nasty · Penn StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Penn State. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Penn State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 42.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -6 -104 | 42.5 -110 | -221 | +182 |
All 21 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 42.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -6 -108 | 42.5 -117 | -225 | +180 |
| BetMGM | -6 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6 -108 | 42.5 -117 | -225 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -6 -109 | 42.5 -118 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -6 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -107 | 42.5 -112 | -235 | +185 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -103 | 42.5 -110 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -112 | -225 | +184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 42.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -228 | +181 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -104 | 42.5 -110 | -221 | +182 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -213 | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 43.5 -111 | -238 | +173 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for Penn State, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM+6 -105edge +1.1%
- FanDuel+5.5 -102edge +0.5%
- Caesars+6.5 -113edge +0.4%
- DraftKings+6.5 -115edge -0.0%
- Fanatics+6 -115edge -1.2%
- 2 more at worse prices
- DraftKings +4+185edge +0.0%
- DraftKings Predictions+163 (36¢ on the app)edge -2.9%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Penn State +6.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 49°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Penn State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -6.5, only $46 available; Under 42.5, only $36 available; Michigan Wolverines ML, only $67 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -205 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -149 |
| Massey | -0.5 | +100 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.0 | -205 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 39.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions +6.0 | -105 | -110 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | +181 | +185 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan Wolverines since 10-09 15:51; total has moved down 0.9.
Florida Gators at Texas LonghornsCFB Texas -9.5should be Texas -11 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGM · was -9.5A Little Nasty · TexasBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Texas. Market says Texas by 10, the Nasty Number says Texas by 11. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | — | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -409 | +308 |
All 20 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | — | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 53.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 52.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -104 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 53.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -115 | 53.5 -113 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -10 -105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Caesars | -10 -106 | 52.5 -113 | -380 | +295 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -116 | 52.5 -108 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -118 | 52.5 -110 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 +100 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -409 | +308 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 52.5 -111 | -429 | +285 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Texas, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-9.5 -112edge +1.4%
- Caesars-10 -106edge +1.1%
- FanDuel-9.5 -115edge +0.8%
- Fanatics-10 -110edge +0.2%
- DraftKings-9.5 -118edge +0.1%
- 2 more at worse prices
- FanDuel +2-375edge -0.0%
- Caesars +1-380edge -0.2%
- Fanatics-400edge -1.1%
- DraftKings Predictions-426 (79¢ on the app)edge -2.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas -9.5 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Texas, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $127 available; Under 53.5, only $177 available; Texas Longhorns ML, only $448 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -546 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -555 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -320 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -375 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -358 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -9.5 | -112 | -119 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -375 | -375 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Texas Longhorns since 10-09 15:51; total has moved down 1.6.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston CougarsCFB Houston to winour data says 66 in 100 · -183A Little Nasty · HoustonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Houston. Market says Houston by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Houston by 5.5. At -183 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Houston is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 61. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -101 | 61 -112 | -193 | +161 |
All 20 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -113 | 61.5 -105 | -180 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -4 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -105 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -113 | 61.5 -105 | -180 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 61.5 -107 | -180 | +145 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -105 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 61 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -182 | +153 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -103 | 60.5 -110 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 60.5 -112 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 60.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 61 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -180 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -101 | 61 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -202 | +162 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -101 | 61 -112 | -193 | +161 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -114 | 60.5 -116 | -210 | +155 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -105 | 61.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics +1-4 -110edge +0.6%
- FanDuel +2-4.5 -105edge +0.4%
- DraftKings Predictions-3.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -2.8%
- FanDuel-178edge +1.6%
- Caesars-182edge +1.1%
- DraftKings +1-185edge +0.7%
- Fanatics-190edge +0.1%
- DraftKings Predictions-203 (65¢ on the app)edge -1.4%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Houston to win · -183 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -4.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Houston, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars ML, only $27 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $29 available; Oklahoma State Cowboys ML, only $195 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -181 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -224 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (18 books) | -4.5 | -174 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | -183 | -191 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Houston Cougars -4.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 61.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Houston Cougars since 10-09 18:36; total has moved up 3.5.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon DucksCFB Oregon -7Nasty Number Oregon by 7.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 7, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 7.5, but the market has moved 5.6 points away from Oregon since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Oregon's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | — | — | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -103 | 52.5 -110 | -272 | +218 |
All 20 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | — | — | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -110 | 51.5 -113 | -295 | +220 |
| BetMGM | -7 -108 | 52.5 -105 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -125 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7 -110 | 51.5 -113 | -295 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 51.5 -114 | -295 | +215 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -270 | +220 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 52.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| Courtside | -7 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -7 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -250 | +202 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | -300 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -122 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 52.5 -110 | -275 | +218 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -103 | 52.5 -110 | -272 | +218 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 52.5 -114 | -290 | +206 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -120 | 52.5 -105 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel-6.5 -115edge +2.9%
- Caesars-7 -106edge +2.0%
- DraftKings +1-7 -108edge +1.5%
- Fanatics-7 -110edge +1.1%
- DraftKings Predictions-6.5 -138 (56¢ on the app)edge -1.6%
- DraftKings-238edge +3.1%
- Caesars +1-245edge +2.5%
- FanDuel +1-250edge +2.1%
- DraftKings Predictions-284 (72¢ on the app)edge -0.5%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 5.6 away from Oregon, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -6.5, only $135 available; Over 52.5, only $280 available; Under 52.5, only $234 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -223 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -184 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -389 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -437 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -244 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -238 | -278 | +3.1% |
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -6.5 | -115 | -129 | +2.9% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.6 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-09 15:51; total has moved down 6.1.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Wyoming CowboysCFB Northern Illinois +7.5should be Northern Illinois +6.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wyoming by 7, the Nasty Number says Wyoming by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 39 to 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -290 73¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7 -112 | 41 -110 | -287 | +229 |
All 20 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -290 73¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -124 | 40.5 -112 | -275 | +210 |
| BetMGM | -7 -118 | 40.5 -115 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -113 | 41 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6.5 -124 | 40.5 -112 | -275 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -125 | 40.5 -112 | -275 | +210 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 41 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 41 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 41 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 40.5 -118 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 40.5 -120 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 41 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -310 | +245 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -109 | 41 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -350 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -112 | 41 -110 | -287 | +229 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -285 | +233 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 40.5 -119 | -370 | +250 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -105 | 41.5 +100 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel+7.5 -110edge +2.4%
- BetMGM+7 -102edge +1.2%
- DraftKings +1+7 -105edge +0.5%
- Caesars+7 -108edge -0.2%
- DraftKings Predictions+7.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -1.2%
- FanDuel+245edge +1.6%
- BetMGM+240edge +1.2%
- DraftKings +1+235edge +0.7%
- Fanatics+230edge +0.3%
- DraftKings Predictions+212 (30¢ on the app)edge -1.5%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Northern Illinois +7.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 63°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys -7.5, only $98 available; Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5, only $40 available; Over 40.5, only $55 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.5 | -401 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -198 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -212 |
| Market (17 books) | -7.0 | -265 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 34.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +234 | +227 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
UMass Minutemen at Buffalo BullsCFB Buffalo -3.5should be Buffalo -3.5 at BetMGMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Buffalo by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Buffalo by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Buffalo is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -167 61¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 45 -110 | -163 | +138 |
All 18 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -167 61¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -180 | +143 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 +105 | 44.5 -108 | -175 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -180 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -117 | 44.5 -110 | -180 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 45 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 44.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -142 | 44.5 -110 | -172 | +142 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 44 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 45 -110 | -163 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 44.5 -119 | -174 | +130 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Buffalo, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-3.5 +105edge +1.7%
- DraftKings-3 -112edge +1.5%
- Caesars-3 -114edge +1.1%
- Fanatics-3 -115edge +0.8%
- FanDuel-2.5 -142edge -1.2%
- 1 more at worse prices
- DraftKings-155edge +1.4%
- Fanatics-160edge +0.6%
- Kalshi-167 (61¢)edge -0.4%
- FanDuel-172edge -1.1%
- BetMGM-175edge -1.5%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buffalo -3.5 · +105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 45°F, 26% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $118 available; Under 44.5, only $54 available; Buffalo Bulls ML, only $33 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +106 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -162 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -191 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -220 |
| Market (16 books) | -3.5 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls -3.5 | +105 | -102 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | -155 | -164 | +1.4% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue DevilsCFB Duke to winour data says 62 in 100 · -154Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Duke by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 47.5 -107 | -175 | +147 |
All 20 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -113 | 47.5 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 47.5 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -112 | 47.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3 -113 | 47.5 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -113 | 47.5 -110 | -157 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 47.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -106 | 47.5 -108 | -170 | +140 |
| Courtside | -3 -118 | 47.5 -108 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 47 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 47.5 -105 | -154 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 47.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -177 | +143 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 47.5 -107 | -175 | +147 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -114 | -185 | +137 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-3 -118edge -0.3%
- FanDuel-3.5 -102edge -0.4%
- DraftKings-3 -120edge -0.7%
- Fanatics-3.5 -105edge -1.1%
- Caesars-3.5 -106edge -1.4%
- 2 more at worse prices
- FanDuel-154edge +1.1%
- BetMGM-165edge -0.5%
- Kalshi-167 (61¢)edge -0.8%
- DraftKings +2-170edge -1.2%
- DraftKings Predictions-178 (62¢ on the app)edge -2.2%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Duke to win · -154 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 62°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward North Carolina).
Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5, only $52 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $400 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $433 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -202 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -119 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -116 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -308 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | -154 | -162 | +1.1% |
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils -3.0 | -118 | -117 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward North Carolina Tar Heels since 10-09 15:51; total has moved up 1.0.
Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA BruinsCFB UCLA to winour data says 62 in 100 · -155Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 3.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UCLA by 3 to UCLA by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -167 61¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 46.5 -110 | -171 | +145 |
All 19 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -167 61¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3 -117 | 46.5 -109 | -165 | +132 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3 -117 | 46.5 -109 | -165 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -104 | 46.5 -106 | -157 | +132 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -103 | 46.5 -108 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -106 | 46.5 -106 | -166 | +138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 46.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -183 | +148 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 46.5 -110 | -171 | +145 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 46.5 -111 | -191 | +141 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars-3.5 -104edge -0.8%
- DraftKings +1-3.5 -105edge -1.1%
- FanDuel-3.5 -106edge -1.3%
- DraftKings Predictions-3.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -4.9%
- DraftKings-155edge +1.0%
- Caesars-157edge +0.7%
- BetMGM +1-165edge -0.4%
- Kalshi-167 (61¢)edge -0.8%
- DraftKings Predictions-185 (63¢ on the app)edge -3.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCLA to win · -155 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Wisconsin Badgers ML, only $5 available; UCLA Bruins ML, only $40 available; Wisconsin Badgers ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -263 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -134 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -185 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -148 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.5 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCLA Bruins ML | -155 | -162 | +1.0% |
| Spread | UCLA Bruins -3.5 | -104 | -101 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.9.
Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia MountaineersCFB Cincinnati +1.5Nasty Number West Virginia by 1 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says West Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 1. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Cincinnati's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -116 52¢ | — | -126 54¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 62 -110 | -119 | +102 |
All 21 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -116 52¢ | — | -126 54¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2 -113 | 62.5 -109 | -132 | +107 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 62.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2 -113 | 62.5 -109 | -132 | +107 |
| BetRivers | -2 -114 | 62.5 -110 | -132 | +107 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 62 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 62.5 -109 | -122 | +103 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 62.5 -108 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 63.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 62 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -122 | +100 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 62 -110 | -119 | +102 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -122 | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 62.5 -114 | -127 | -104 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM+2 -110edge +0.4%
- FanDuel +3+1.5 -110edge -0.7%
- Kalshi+1.5 -112 (51¢)edge -1.0%
- DraftKings Predictions+2.5 -138 (56¢ on the app)edge -4.2%
- Caesars+103edge -0.2%
- FanDuel+102edge -0.4%
- Fanatics +2+100edge -0.9%
- DraftKings Predictions-113 (51¢ on the app)edge -3.9%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 46°F, 25% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 62.5, only $63 available; Under 62.5, only $0 available; Cincinnati Bearcats ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +120 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -135 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +102 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.5 | -112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 63.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +2.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +102 | +104 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 62.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 10-11 06:03.
Kentucky Wildcats at Oklahoma SoonersCFB Kentucky +6.5should be Kentucky +6.5 at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oklahoma by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -119 | 43.5 -110 | -262 | +212 |
All 19 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetMGM | — | 43.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -116 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -265 | +205 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -112 | 44.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -113 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -132 | 43.5 -115 | -285 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -295 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -119 | 43.5 -110 | -262 | +212 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 43.5 -116 | -310 | +218 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -240 | +200 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel+6.5 +108edge +1.8%
- Fanatics+6.5 +100edge -0.1%
- DraftKings +1+6.5 -108edge -2.0%
- DraftKings Predictions+6.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -5.1%
- FanDuel+230edge +1.6%
- Fanatics +1+210edge -0.4%
- DraftKings +1+205edge -0.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+178 (34¢ on the app)edge -4.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +6.5 · +108 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners -6.5, only $62 available; Kentucky Wildcats +6.5, only $42 available; Over 43.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -228 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -206 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -208 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -264 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +6.5 | +108 | +100 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +230 | +214 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.1.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red RaidersCFB Texas Tech -14Nasty Number Texas Tech by 15 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 15. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas Tech is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -109 | 48.5 -110 | -641 | +437 |
All 20 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -13 -112 | 49.5 -106 | -625 | +430 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 48.5 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -114 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13 -112 | 49.5 -106 | -625 | +430 |
| BetRivers | -13 -113 | 49.5 -107 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -115 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Caesars | -14 -109 | 49 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 48.5 -113 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -115 | 49 -105 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -650 | +470 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -110 | 49 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -699 | +480 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -109 | 48.5 -110 | -641 | +437 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 48.5 -116 | -752 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for Texas Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-14 -108edge +0.7%
- Caesars-14 -109edge +0.5%
- DraftKings-14 -110edge +0.2%
- FanDuel-13.5 -120edge -0.0%
- Fanatics-14 -115edge -0.9%
- 1 more at worse prices
- Caesars-590edge -1.2%
- Fanatics +2-600edge -1.4%
- BetMGM-625edge -1.9%
- FanDuel-650edge -2.3%
- DraftKings Predictions-809 (87¢ on the app)edge -4.6%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Texas Tech, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Arizona State Sun Devils ML, only $25 available; Texas Tech Red Raiders ML, only $38 available; Arizona State Sun Devils ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.5 | -839 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1077 |
| Sagarin | -15.0 | -547 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -454 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -566 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -625 | -539 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Texas Tech Red Raiders since 10-11 06:03; total has moved down 1.1.
UNLV Rebels at Air Force FalconsCFB Air Force +1Nasty Number UNLV by 1 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 1, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Air Force is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -107 50¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +1 -107 | 46.5 -119 | -101 | -115 |
All 20 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -107 50¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -104 | -118 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +100 | -118 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -115 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +1.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -104 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -105 | -120 |
| BetUS | PK -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -110 | 47 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +1 -115 | 46.5 -114 | +102 | -121 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -122 | 46.5 -112 | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 47 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -111 | 46.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +100 | -122 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -107 | 46.5 -119 | -101 | -115 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -104 | — |
| ReBet | +1.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | -104 | -127 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -125 | 46.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for Air Force, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel+1.5 -105edge +0.2%
- BetMGM+1.5 -110edge -0.9%
- Fanatics+1 -110edge -2.2%
- Caesars+1 -115edge -3.4%
- DraftKings+1.5 -122edge -3.5%
- 1 more at worse prices
- Caesars+102edge -0.7%
- DraftKings +2+100edge -1.2%
- Fanatics-105edge -2.4%
- Kalshi-107 (50¢)edge -2.9%
- DraftKings Predictions-113 (51¢ on the app)edge -4.2%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Air Force, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons +1.5, only $91 available; UNLV Rebels -1.5, only $102 available; Over 46.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -186 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +106 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (17 books) | +1.0 | +108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +1.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -101 | +105 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 10-11 13:22; total has moved down 1.2.
New Mexico Lobos at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsCFB Under 46weather: 23 mph wind, worth about 4.5 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 14, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 15, but the market has moved 3.3 points away from New Mexico since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in New Mexico's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 -107 | 46.5 -108 | +447 | -660 |
All 20 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -114 | 46.5 -108 | +500 | -770 |
| BetMGM | +14 -105 | 45.5 -108 | +475 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14.5 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -114 | 46.5 -108 | +500 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -115 | 46.5 -109 | +500 | -770 |
| BetUS | +14.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +14 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| Caesars | +14.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +14.5 -112 | 45.5 -112 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +14.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 88¢ -900 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -118 | 45.5 -108 | +470 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +14.5 -111 | 46 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +520 | -800 |
| Pinnacle | +14 -107 | 46.5 -108 | +447 | -660 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +488 | — |
| ReBet | +14.5 -114 | 45.5 -114 | +480 | -847 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 +100 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for New Mexico, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics-14 -110edge +0.1%
- BetMGM-14 -112edge -0.3%
- FanDuel-14.5 -104edge -0.6%
- DraftKings-14.5 -108edge -1.5%
- Caesars-14.5 -109edge -1.7%
- 1 more at worse prices
- Kalshi-609 (85¢)edge -1.6%
- BetMGM-625edge -1.9%
- FanDuel +2-650edge -2.4%
- Caesars-675edge -2.8%
- DraftKings Predictions-900 (88¢ on the app)edge -5.7%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 23 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +14.0. The market has moved 3.3 away from New Mexico, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: New Mexico Lobos ML, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +882 |
| FPI | +18.0 | +766 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +582 |
| Massey | +11.5 | +396 |
| Market (17 books) | +14.0 | +599 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -14.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -609 | -537 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Hawaii Rainbow Warriors since 10-11 10:31; total has moved down 2.3.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland TerrapinsCFB Maryland to winour data says 65 in 100 · -178Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Maryland by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -4.5 -108 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -200 65¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -206 | +171 |
All 21 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -4.5 -108 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -200 65¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -113 | 58.5 -120 | -200 | +160 |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -108 | 58.5 -115 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -108 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -4.5 -113 | 58.5 -120 | -200 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -114 | 58.5 -121 | -200 | +160 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -109 | 59 -110 | -190 | +158 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -108 | 59.5 +100 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 59.5 -102 | -192 | +160 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | -178 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -104 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 59 -110 | -210 | +169 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -206 | +171 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -203 | — |
| ReBet | -5.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | -220 | +162 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel-4.5 -105edge -0.6%
- BetMGM +1-4.5 -108edge -1.3%
- Caesars-4.5 -109edge -1.5%
- DraftKings +1-4.5 -110edge -1.7%
- DraftKings Predictions-3.5 -138 (56¢ on the app)edge -4.7%
- FanDuel-178edge +0.7%
- Caesars-190edge -0.8%
- DraftKings-192edge -1.0%
- Kalshi +2-200edge -1.9%
- DraftKings Predictions-223 (67¢ on the app)edge -4.2%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Maryland to win · -178 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 54°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins -4.5, only $130 available; Rutgers Scarlet Knights +4.5, only $468 available; Over 59.5, only $124 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -202 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -192 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -188 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (17 books) | -4.5 | -186 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | -178 | -184 | +0.7% |
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins -4.5 | -108 | -103 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
Guido matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State AztecsCFB San Diego State +8Nasty Number Fresno State by 7.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 8, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +8.5 -116 52¢ | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +262 | -337 |
All 21 books
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +8.5 -116 52¢ | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +8 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +280 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -108 | 45.5 -102 | +275 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8.5 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +8 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +280 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +8 -106 | 44.5 -112 | +280 | -375 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 45 -110 | +265 | -330 |
| Caesars | +8.5 -113 | 45 -113 | +285 | -360 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 44.5 -116 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -118 | +270 | -340 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 45 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +285 | -365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +8.5 -106 | 45 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +268 | -353 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +262 | -337 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +270 | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | +275 | -410 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 45.5 +100 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel+9.5 -110edge +0.1%
- BetMGM+8.5 -108edge -0.4%
- DraftKings+8.5 -110edge -0.8%
- Caesars+8.5 -113edge -1.5%
- Fanatics+8 -110edge -1.8%
- 2 more at worse prices
- FanDuel +1+285edge +0.2%
- BetMGM+275edge -0.5%
- DraftKings +1+270edge -0.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+233 (28¢ on the app)edge -3.9%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +8.0. The market has moved 1.0 toward San Diego State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $106 available; Under 44.5, only $371 available; San Diego State Aztecs ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +319 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +304 |
| Sagarin | +6.0 | +206 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +141 |
| Market (18 books) | +8.0 | +315 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +9.5 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +275 | +282 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 10-11 06:03.
Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse OrangeCFB Syracuse +13Nasty Number Louisville by 12.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +13 -104 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 | +398 19¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +13 -104 | 56.5 -110 | +389 | -551 |
All 21 books
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +13 -104 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 | +398 19¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +440 | -670 |
| BetMGM | +13 -108 | 56.5 -108 | +425 | -550 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13 -104 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +440 | -670 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +430 | -670 |
| BetUS | +13 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +13.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | +390 | -550 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | +380 | -500 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | +402 | -501 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | +390 | -520 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +440 | -610 |
| LowVig.ag | +13 +100 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +13 -104 | 56.5 -110 | +389 | -551 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +400 | — |
| ReBet | +13.5 -111 | 56.5 -111 | +370 | -599 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for Syracuse, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Guido+13 -104edge +0.0%
- Caesars+13.5 -108edge -0.3%
- FanDuel +1+13.5 -110edge -0.7%
- BetMGM+13 -108edge -0.9%
- DraftKings+13.5 -112edge -1.2%
- 2 more at worse prices
- FanDuel+440edge +1.0%
- BetMGM+425edge +0.5%
- Fanatics+410edge -0.1%
- Kalshi+398 (19¢)edge -0.6%
- DraftKings+390edge -0.9%
- 2 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +11.5, now +13.0. The market has moved 1.7 away from Syracuse, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $52 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $41 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +309 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +298 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +274 |
| Massey | +12.0 | +406 |
| Market (17 books) | +13.0 | +497 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 60.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange +13.0 | -104 | -104 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | +440 | +412 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Louisville Cardinals since 10-11 06:03; total has moved up 0.9.
Guido matches the consensus.
Western Michigan Broncos at Central Michigan ChippewasCFB Western Michigan -7Nasty Number Western Michigan by 7.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 7.5 to Western Michigan by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +229 29¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +7 -110 | 43 -109 | +222 | -276 |
All 20 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +229 29¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -120 | 43.5 +100 | +225 | -295 |
| BetMGM | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -105 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7.5 -120 | 43.5 +100 | +225 | -295 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -121 | 43.5 -103 | +225 | -295 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 43 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| Caesars | +7 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +230 | -290 |
| Courtside | +7 -108 | 42.5 -108 | +246 | -290 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +240 | -298 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 63¢ -185 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 43 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 43.5 +100 | +225 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -101 | 43 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +244 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -110 | 43 -109 | +222 | -276 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -128 | 42.5 -116 | +232 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM-7 -108edge +0.4%
- FanDuel-6.5 -122edge +0.3%
- Fanatics +1-7 -110edge -0.1%
- Caesars-7 -112edge -0.5%
- DraftKings Predictions-6.5 -144 (57¢ on the app)edge -3.8%
- FanDuel-265edge +0.0%
- Fanatics +1-275edge -0.7%
- Caesars-290edge -1.7%
- DraftKings-298edge -2.2%
- DraftKings Predictions-355 (76¢ on the app)edge -5.4%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 48°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas +6.5, only $352 available; Western Michigan Broncos -6.5, only $145 available; Over 42.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +310 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +310 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +226 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +172 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +259 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -265 | -265 | +0.0% |
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -7.0 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green FalconsCFB Under 45weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bowling Green by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -7.5 -106 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 45 -108 | -276 | +221 |
All 20 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -7.5 -106 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -112 | 45.5 -105 | -305 | +230 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 44.5 -115 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 +100 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7.5 -112 | 45.5 -105 | -305 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -113 | 45.5 -106 | -305 | +230 |
| BetUS | -7.5 +100 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 45 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -114 | -290 | +230 |
| Courtside | -7.5 +102 | 44.5 -110 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 +100 | 44.5 -112 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 45 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 44.5 -115 | -310 | +245 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +104 | 45 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -319 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 45 -108 | -276 | +221 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 44.5 -116 | -340 | +236 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -120 | 44.5 -115 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Guido+7.5 -114edge -2.0%
- Caesars+7.5 -115edge -2.2%
- BetMGM+7 -105edge -3.2%
- DraftKings+7.5 -120edge -3.3%
- FanDuel+7.5 -122edge -3.7%
- 2 more at worse prices
- FanDuel+245edge -1.4%
- DraftKings +3+230edge -2.7%
- Kalshi+217 (30¢)edge -3.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+194 (32¢ on the app)edge -6.5%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 48°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $108 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $388 available; Ball State Cardinals ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread -7.5 here against -7.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.5 | -316 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -276 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -283 |
| Market (17 books) | -7.5 | -260 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +7.5 | -114 | -105 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +245 | +263 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Guido: spread -7.5 here against -7.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia State Panthers at James Madison DukesCFB Under 58.5weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 12, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 12.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 11.5 to James Madison by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -458 81¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -12 -110 | 58.5 -106 | -493 | +357 |
All 20 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -458 81¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -117 | 57.5 -112 | -560 | +380 |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10.5 -117 | 57.5 -112 | -560 | +380 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -118 | 57.5 -113 | -560 | +380 |
| BetUS | -11 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -12 -110 | 58 -115 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | -480 | +370 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -454 | +371 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 | -470 | +360 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 57.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -108 | 57.5 -112 | -550 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -111 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Pinnacle | -12 -110 | 58.5 -106 | -493 | +357 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -426 | — |
| ReBet | -12.5 -116 | 58.5 -109 | -526 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars-11.5 -108edge -0.7%
- DraftKings-11.5 -110edge -1.2%
- Fanatics +1-12 -110edge -1.8%
- FanDuel-13.5 -108edge -3.3%
- DraftKings Predictions-11.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -4.7%
- Kalshi-458 (81¢)edge -1.4%
- DraftKings-470edge -1.8%
- Caesars-480edge -2.1%
- Fanatics +1-500edge -2.7%
- FanDuel-550edge -3.9%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 50°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $1 available; Under 57.5, only $57 available; Georgia State Panthers ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -571 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -386 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -391 |
| Massey | -18.5 | -805 |
| Market (17 books) | -12.0 | -447 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -11.5 | -108 | -105 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -458 | -417 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 5.9.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State WildcatsCFB Kansas State -6.5Nasty Number Kansas State by 6 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kansas State by 7 to Kansas State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -234 | +192 |
All 21 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -107 | 54.5 -112 | -286 | +220 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7 -107 | 54.5 -112 | -286 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -7 -108 | 54.5 -113 | -286 | +220 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -112 | 55.5 -109 | -245 | +200 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -106 | 55.5 -110 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +105 | 54.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -234 | +192 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -223 | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -119 | 54.5 -116 | -275 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars+6.5 -108edge -1.0%
- Fanatics +2+6.5 -110edge -1.5%
- DraftKings+6.5 -112edge -1.9%
- Kalshi+6.5 -116 (52¢)edge -2.8%
- DraftKings Predictions+6.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.0%
- Fanatics +1+200edge -0.6%
- Kalshi+198 (32¢)edge -0.8%
- DraftKings+195edge -1.2%
- FanDuel +1+190edge -1.7%
- DraftKings Predictions+186 (33¢ on the app)edge -2.3%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 51°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward Kansas). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Kansas State Wildcats -6.5, only $186 available; Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $186 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -211 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -182 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -148 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -304 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -222 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +6.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +200 | +205 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 10-09 15:51.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU TigersCFB LSU -10.5Nasty Number LSU by 11 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 10.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 | — | — | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -114 | 59 -108 | -444 | +329 |
All 21 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 | — | — | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11 -109 | 59.5 -112 | -455 | +330 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -115 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -11 -109 | 59.5 -112 | -455 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -11 -110 | 59.5 -113 | -455 | +330 |
| BetUS | -11 -115 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -11 -110 | 59 -110 | -440 | +330 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -109 | 59 -108 | -420 | +330 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 58.5 -113 | -412 | +339 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -425 | +330 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 57.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11 -110 | 59 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -105 | 59.5 -104 | -410 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -111 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -450 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -114 | 59 -108 | -444 | +329 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +317 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 59.5 -114 | -481 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars-10.5 -109edge -1.6%
- DraftKings +1-10.5 -110edge -1.8%
- FanDuel-11.5 -105edge -2.6%
- Fanatics-11 -110edge -2.8%
- DraftKings Predictions-10.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -6.4%
- FanDuel-410edge -1.5%
- Caesars +3-420edge -1.9%
- DraftKings Predictions-488 (81¢ on the app)edge -4.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Mississippi State).
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -11.5, only $53 available; Over 58.5, only $54 available; Under 58.5, only $369 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.0 | -386 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -391 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -374 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -335 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.5 | -395 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 58.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LSU Tigers -10.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | LSU Tigers ML | -433 | -373 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 10-09 15:51; total has moved down 0.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State SpartansCFB Northwestern -8.5Nasty Number Northwestern by 9.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Northwestern by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Northwestern by 9.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Northwestern by 9.5 to Northwestern by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +8.5 -115 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | +273 | -354 |
All 21 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +8.5 -115 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +350 | -500 |
| BetMGM | +9 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -115 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +10.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +350 | -500 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | +350 | -500 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -115 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Caesars | +9.5 -113 | 48.5 -109 | +285 | -360 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -110 | 48.5 -118 | +285 | -365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +350 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -111 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +285 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | +273 | -354 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -111 | 48.5 -116 | +270 | -400 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Guido-8.5 -105edge -0.4%
- BetMGM-9 -108edge -1.5%
- Caesars-9.5 -107edge -1.7%
- Fanatics-9 -110edge -2.0%
- DraftKings-8.5 -112edge -2.0%
- 2 more at worse prices
- BetMGM-350edge -2.0%
- DraftKings-355edge -2.3%
- Kalshi +1-360edge -2.5%
- FanDuel-365edge -2.8%
- Fanatics-375edge -3.2%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 45°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Michigan State Spartans ML, only $25 available; Michigan State Spartans ML, only $156 available; Northwestern Wildcats ML, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread +8.5 here against +9.5 consensus.
Guido: total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +412 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +312 |
| Sagarin | +6.0 | +200 |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Michigan State on different scales | |
| Market (18 books) | +8.5 | +337 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -8.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | -350 | -312 | -2.0% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-11 06:03.
Guido: spread +8.5 here against +9.5 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Charlotte 49ers at Temple OwlsCFB Temple -21.5Nasty Number Temple by 21.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Temple by 21.5.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Temple by 23.5 to Temple by 21.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -21.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -114 | 50.5 -112 | -2200 | +1021 |
All 21 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -21.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -22.5 -109 | 50.5 -117 | — | +1150 |
| BetMGM | -22 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -2500 | +1250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -22.5 -109 | 50.5 -117 | — | +1150 |
| BetRivers | -22.5 -109 | 50.5 -117 | — | +1150 |
| BetUS | -21.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -23 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -2200 | +1000 |
| Caesars | -21.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Courtside | -21.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -2122 | +1290 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -2400 | +1200 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -21.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 58¢ -150 all-in | — | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -23 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -2200 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -106 | 50.5 -108 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -21.5 -106 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -23.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -2000 | +930 |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -114 | 50.5 -112 | -2200 | +1021 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -2400 | — |
| ReBet | -23.5 -114 | 50.5 -111 | -2273 | +800 |
| theScore Bet | -21.5 -120 | 50.5 -105 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars +1-21.5 -110edge -2.0%
- BetMGM-22 -108edge -2.3%
- DraftKings-21.5 -112edge -2.4%
- FanDuel-22.5 -106edge -2.7%
- Fanatics-23 -110edge -4.6%
- 1 more at worse prices
- Kalshi-1684 (94¢)edge -2.1%
- Fanatics-2200edge -3.4%
- DraftKings +1-2400edge -3.7%
- FanDuel-3000edge -4.5%
- Caesars-3500edge -5.0%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 59°F.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -22.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Charlotte).
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $54 available; Under 50.5, only $53 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $227 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread -21.5 here against -22.4 consensus.
Guido: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -23.0 | -1326 |
| FPI | -20.0 | -906 |
| Sagarin | -21.5 | -1169 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -703 |
| Market (17 books) | -21.5 | -1952 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 55.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls -21.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | -1684 | -1192 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -128 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Charlotte 49ers since 10-11 10:17; total has moved up 0.9.
Guido: spread -21.5 here against -22.4 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Auburn Tigers at Georgia BulldogsCFB Georgia -18.5Nasty Number Georgia by 18.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -107 | 48.5 -113 | -1101 | +647 |
All 21 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -19 -112 | 49.5 -107 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -1100 | +775 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18.5 -115 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -19 -112 | 49.5 -107 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetRivers | -19 -113 | 49.5 -108 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -115 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -18.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -18.5 -112 | 49 -108 | -1450 | +800 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -103 | -1121 | +788 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | -1200 | +750 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1450 | +810 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -1600 | +850 |
| LowVig.ag | -18.5 -111 | 50 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -19.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1205 | +680 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -107 | 48.5 -113 | -1101 | +647 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -1011 | — |
| ReBet | -19.5 -114 | 49.5 -111 | -1299 | +610 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings +1+18.5 -108edge -1.9%
- Caesars+18.5 -109edge -2.2%
- FanDuel +1+18.5 -110edge -2.4%
- DraftKings Predictions+18.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.9%
- FanDuel +1+810edge +0.2%
- BetMGM+775edge -0.2%
- DraftKings+750edge -0.5%
- Fanatics+700edge -1.3%
- DraftKings Predictions+614 (12¢ on the app)edge -2.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers +18.5, only $149 available; Over 48.5, only $52 available; Auburn Tigers ML, only $482 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -798 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -860 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -555 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -731 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1024 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers +18.5 | -110 | +100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | +781 | +791 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan EaglesCFB Toledo -4.5Nasty Number Toledo by 5.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +4.5 -102 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5 -108 | 53 -110 | +173 | -208 |
All 20 books
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | +4.5 -102 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -112 | 52.5 -107 | +155 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -102 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5 -112 | 52.5 -107 | +155 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +5 -113 | 52.5 -108 | +155 | -200 |
| BetUS | +4.5 +100 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 53 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -106 | 53 -110 | +168 | -200 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 52.5 -113 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -112 | 52.5 -115 | +164 | -198 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 53 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -106 | 53.5 -105 | +162 | -196 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 +102 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +181 | -226 |
| Pinnacle | +5 -108 | 53 -110 | +173 | -208 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | +173 | -236 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for the Eastern Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics-5 -110edge -1.5%
- FanDuel +1-4.5 -114edge -1.5%
- DraftKings +1-5.5 -108edge -2.0%
- Guido-4.5 -118edge -2.4%
- DraftKings Predictions-4.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -5.2%
- FanDuel-196edge -0.4%
- DraftKings-198edge -0.7%
- Caesars +1-200edge -0.9%
- Fanatics-205edge -1.4%
- Kalshi-218 (67¢)edge -2.8%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 50°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles ML, only $88 available; Eastern Michigan Eagles ML, only $398 available; Toledo Rockets ML, only $365 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: spread +4.5 here against +5.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +282 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +183 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +441 |
| Market (17 books) | +4.5 | +189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -4.5 | -118 | -107 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -200 | -192 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Guido: spread +4.5 here against +5.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech HokiesCFB Under 56weather: 18 mph wind, worth about 2.8 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -9.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 | -360 77¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -108 | 55 -115 | -371 | +284 |
All 22 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido | -9.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 | -360 77¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10 -106 | 54.5 -109 | -385 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10 -106 | 54.5 -109 | -385 | +290 |
| BetRivers | -10 -107 | 54.5 -110 | -385 | +290 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 54 -110 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 55.5 +100 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 55 -110 | -380 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -108 | 55 -115 | -371 | +284 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -355 | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 54.5 -125 | -400 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -105 | 54.5 -105 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Virginia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars+9.5 -109edge -1.8%
- Fanatics +3+9.5 -110edge -2.0%
- FanDuel+9.5 -112edge -2.5%
- DraftKings Predictions+9.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.5%
- Fanatics+290edge -1.1%
- DraftKings +2+275edge -2.2%
- FanDuel+265edge -2.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+233 (28¢ on the app)edge -5.5%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 52°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +9.5, only $7 available; Over 54.5, only $57 available; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Guido: total 56.0 here against 55.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.5 | -358 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -305 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -112 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -333 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +9.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +283 | +308 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.5.
Guido: total 56.0 here against 55.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsCFB Missouri +6Nasty Number Ole Miss by 5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 6, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60.5 to 59.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 | — | — | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -105 | 59.5 -109 | -223 | +184 |
All 20 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 | — | — | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -110 | 60.5 -108 | -230 | +185 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 59.5 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -113 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6 -110 | 60.5 -108 | -230 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -112 | 60.5 -109 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -6 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Caesars | -6 -112 | 59.5 -112 | -235 | +186 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 59.5 -108 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 60.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -102 | 59.5 -112 | -200 | +164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -228 | +182 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -105 | 59.5 -109 | -223 | +184 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -223 | — |
| ReBet | -5.5 -116 | 59.5 -114 | -238 | +174 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars+6 -108edge -0.1%
- DraftKings +2+6 -110edge -0.6%
- FanDuel+6.5 -120edge -1.6%
- Kalshi+5.5 -112 (51¢)edge -2.2%
- DraftKings Predictions+5.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.4%
- Caesars +2+186edge -0.3%
- Kalshi +1+181edge -0.9%
- FanDuel +1+164 (36¢ on the app)edge -3.2%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Ole Miss Rebels -5.5, only $53 available; Over 59.5, only $57 available; Under 59.5, only $470 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -106 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -145 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -285 |
| Market (17 books) | -6.0 | -206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +6.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +185 | +189 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Rice OwlsCFB Tulsa -4Nasty Number Tulsa by 4 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 4, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 46 -110 | +153 | -182 |
All 19 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +4 -103 | 47.5 -103 | +160 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -108 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4 -103 | 47.5 -103 | +160 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +4 -104 | 47.5 -103 | +160 | -200 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +4 -110 | 46 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -113 | 46 -110 | +151 | -179 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -106 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4 -110 | 46 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -114 | 46.5 -112 | +146 | -178 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -104 | 46 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +170 | -212 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 46 -110 | +153 | -182 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +150 | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -116 | 46.5 -111 | +163 | -222 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics-4 -110edge -1.9%
- FanDuel-4.5 -106edge -2.3%
- Caesars-4.5 -107edge -2.5%
- DraftKings +1-4.5 -108edge -2.8%
- DraftKings Predictions-4.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -5.9%
- FanDuel +1-178edge -0.7%
- DraftKings-180edge -0.9%
- BetMGM-185edge -1.5%
- Fanatics-190edge -2.1%
- DraftKings Predictions-212 (66¢ on the app)edge -4.6%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 77°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $60 available; Under 46.5, only $27 available; Rice Owls ML, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +180 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +188 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +180 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +145 |
| Market (17 books) | +4.0 | +172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane -4.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | -178 | -173 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-11 13:22; total has moved down 1.1.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Troy Trojans at Louisiana Ragin CajunsCFB Under 49.5weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 6 to Louisiana by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -200 65¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -180 | +151 |
All 19 books
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -200 65¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -108 | 48.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -4 -112 | 49.5 -108 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -4.5 -108 | 48.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -109 | 48.5 -117 | -186 | +150 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -106 | 49.5 -103 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -184 | +152 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -210 | +168 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -180 | +151 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -111 | 49.5 -111 | -220 | +161 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars+4.5 -108edge -1.8%
- BetMGM +1+4 -105edge -2.5%
- DraftKings+4.5 -112edge -2.8%
- FanDuel+3.5 -105edge -3.7%
- DraftKings Predictions+3.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -7.6%
- Caesars +1+155edge -3.3%
- FanDuel+152edge -3.8%
- BetMGM +1+150edge -4.1%
- DraftKings Predictions+138 (40¢ on the app)edge -6.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Troy).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -3.5, only $49 available; Troy Trojans +3.5, only $242 available; Over 49.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -233 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -181 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (17 books) | -4.5 | -170 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 48.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +4.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +152 | +178 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Troy Trojans since 10-11 13:22; total has moved up 0.9.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Oregon State BeaversCFB Oregon State -17.5Nasty Number Oregon State by 17 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 16.5 to Oregon State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -869 89¢ | +625 13¢ |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -117 | 53.5 -109 | -1053 | +628 |
All 21 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -869 89¢ | +625 13¢ |
| Bally Bet | -17.5 -117 | 54.5 -107 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetMGM | -17.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -113 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -17.5 -117 | 54.5 -107 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -118 | 54.5 -108 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -115 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -18.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -108 | 53.5 -106 | -1000 | +650 |
| Courtside | -17.5 -108 | 53.5 -103 | -943 | +679 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -1000 | +650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -110 | 53.5 -106 | -1100 | +680 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -17.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -109 | 53 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -17.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -952 | +590 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -117 | 53.5 -109 | -1053 | +628 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -900 | +669 |
| ReBet | -17.5 -116 | 53.5 -111 | -1099 | +540 |
| theScore Bet | -17.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics+18 -110edge +0.1%
- FanDuel +2+17.5 -110edge -1.3%
- Caesars+17.5 -112edge -1.7%
- DraftKings Predictions+18.5 -144 (57¢ on the app)edge -5.4%
- Fanatics +1+700edge +0.5%
- FanDuel+680edge +0.2%
- DraftKings +1+650edge -0.3%
- Kalshi+625 (13¢)edge -0.8%
- DraftKings Predictions+488 (15¢ on the app)edge -4.0%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -17.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Oregon State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Oregon State Beavers -17.5, only $19 available; Washington State Cougars +17.5, only $98 available; Over 52.5, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.5 | -851 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -714 |
| Sagarin | -15.0 | -546 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -179 |
| Market (18 books) | -17.5 | -946 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 45.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +18.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +674 | +667 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Oregon State Beavers since 10-11 06:03; total has moved up 3.1.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt CommodoresCFB Vanderbilt -6.5Nasty Number Vanderbilt by 6 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vanderbilt by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Vanderbilt by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -229 68¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -237 | +194 |
All 20 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -229 68¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6 -113 | 49.5 -112 | -230 | +185 |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -103 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6 -113 | 49.5 -112 | -230 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -114 | 49.5 -113 | -235 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -6 -107 | 50.5 -110 | -218 | +182 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -225 | +184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 +101 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -246 | +195 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -237 | +194 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -111 | 50.5 -116 | -260 | +186 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM+6 -108edge -1.8%
- Fanatics +1+6 -110edge -2.2%
- FanDuel+5.5 -105edge -2.3%
- Caesars+6 -113edge -2.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+5.5 -122 (53¢ on the app)edge -6.1%
- Fanatics +1+190edge -1.3%
- DraftKings +1+185edge -1.9%
- Caesars+182edge -2.3%
- DraftKings Predictions+163 (36¢ on the app)edge -4.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 58°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores -6.5, only $131 available; Arkansas Razorbacks +6.5, only $96 available; Over 50.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -134 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -212 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +6.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +185 | +201 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor BearsCFB Baylor -6.5Nasty Number Baylor by 6.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 49 -110 | -242 | +197 |
All 20 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +174 35¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -245 | +195 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -245 | +195 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -250 | +195 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -108 | 49 -110 | -230 | +191 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -106 | 49.5 -103 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -230 | +190 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -240 | +195 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -250 | +199 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 49 -110 | -242 | +197 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -114 | 48.5 -116 | -265 | +190 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics +1+6.5 -110edge -1.9%
- DraftKings+6.5 -112edge -2.4%
- Caesars+6.5 -113edge -2.6%
- FanDuel+6.5 -115edge -3.0%
- DraftKings Predictions+6.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -6.5%
- Caesars +3+191edge -2.0%
- FanDuel+180edge -3.3%
- Kalshi+174 (35¢)edge -4.2%
- DraftKings Predictions+163 (36¢ on the app)edge -5.6%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.
Kalshi thin: Baylor Bears ML, only $19 available; Baylor Bears ML, only $48 available; TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $171 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -205 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -255 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -186 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -144 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -220 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +194 | +209 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.1.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida State Seminoles at Miami HurricanesCFB Miami -21Nasty Number Miami by 20.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -1596 | +832 |
All 19 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21.5 -107 | 55.5 -114 | -2500 | +1100 |
| BetMGM | -21 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -1600 | +1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -105 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -21.5 -107 | 55.5 -114 | -2500 | +1100 |
| BetRivers | -21.5 -108 | 55.5 -115 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -21 -105 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
| Caesars | -21 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
| Courtside | -21 -113 | 56.5 -108 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -21 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -1650 | +950 |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -21.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | -2500 | +1100 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -101 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 56.5 -110 | -2000 | +920 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -1596 | +832 |
| ReBet | -24.5 -111 | 56.5 -114 | -2273 | +800 |
| theScore Bet | -21.5 +100 | 56.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings+21 -105edge +1.4%
- BetMGM+21 -108edge +0.7%
- Caesars+21 -109edge +0.4%
- Fanatics+21 -110edge +0.2%
- FanDuel+20.5 -104edge -0.8%
- Fanatics+1050edge +1.1%
- Caesars +1+1000edge +0.7%
- DraftKings +1+950edge +0.2%
- FanDuel+920edge -0.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -20.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -23.0 | -1315 |
| FPI | -21.5 | -1171 |
| Sagarin | -17.0 | -651 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -605 |
| Market (18 books) | -21.0 | -1455 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +21.0 | -105 | -111 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +1000 | +926 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Miami Hurricanes since 10-09 18:11; total has moved up 0.7.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Kent State Golden Flashes at South Florida BullsCFB Under 46.5weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Florida by 19.5 to South Florida by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20 -111 | 46.5 -113 | -1218 | +694 |
All 20 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -20 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -2000 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -20 -110 | 46.5 -112 | -1100 | +775 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -20 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -2000 | +950 |
| BetRivers | -20 -113 | 47.5 -109 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -20 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -20 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -1200 | +700 |
| Caesars | -20 -115 | 46.5 -113 | -1250 | +750 |
| Courtside | -19.5 -110 | 46.5 -113 | -1121 | +788 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | -1200 | +750 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -19.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in | 13¢ +566 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 47 -105 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -112 | 46.5 -114 | -2500 | +1100 |
| LowVig.ag | -20 -111 | 46 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -1493 | +800 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -111 | 46.5 -113 | -1218 | +694 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -1329 | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -114 | 46.5 -119 | -1695 | +700 |
| theScore Bet | -19.5 -105 | 46.5 -115 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the South Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings-19.5 -112edge +0.3%
- BetMGM-20 -110edge -0.1%
- Fanatics-20.5 -110edge -1.1%
- Caesars-20 -115edge -1.3%
- FanDuel-20.5 -112edge -1.5%
- 1 more at worse prices
- BetMGM-1100edge -0.8%
- DraftKings +1-1200edge -1.5%
- Kalshi +1-1236edge -1.7%
- DraftKings Predictions +1-2401 (94¢ on the app)edge -5.1%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 76°F, 25% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward South Florida).
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $55 available; Under 46.5, only $88 available; Kent State Golden Flashes ML, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1521 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1099 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -803 |
| Massey | -24.0 | -1504 |
| Market (17 books) | -20.0 | -1128 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -20.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -1100 | -993 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward South Florida Bulls since 10-11 13:22; total has moved down 1.8.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State BisonCFB North Dakota State -16Nasty Number North Dakota State by 15.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 16, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 15.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 14.5 to North Dakota State by 16.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Dakota State spread | Total (over) | North Dakota State ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -719 87¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -103 | 46 -112 | -760 | +496 |
All 20 books
| North Dakota State spread | Total (over) | North Dakota State ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -719 87¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -770 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -15.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -750 | +550 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -14.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -109 | 45.5 -113 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -16 -110 | 46 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -15.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -106 | 45.5 -110 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 89¢ -1011 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -16 -110 | 46 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -112 | 45.5 -115 | -850 | +570 |
| LowVig.ag | -15.5 -106 | 45.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -901 | +560 |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -103 | 46 -112 | -760 | +496 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -733 | +525 |
| ReBet | -16.5 -111 | 46.5 -111 | -952 | +510 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the North Dakota State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Fanatics+16 -110edge -1.4%
- FanDuel+15.5 -108edge -1.6%
- BetMGM+15.5 -110edge -2.1%
- DraftKings +1+15.5 -112edge -2.5%
- DraftKings Predictions+15.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -6.7%
- FanDuel+570edge +0.4%
- BetMGM+550edge -0.0%
- Kalshi +1+530edge -0.5%
- DraftKings +1+500edge -1.3%
- DraftKings Predictions+400 (18¢ on the app)edge -4.6%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -16.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward North Dakota State).
Kalshi thin: North Dakota State Bison -16.5, only $206 available; Nevada Wolf Pack +16.5, only $93 available; Over 46.5, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.5 | -531 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -385 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -467 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -536 |
| Market (17 books) | -16.0 | -672 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +16.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +570 | +552 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward North Dakota State Bison since 10-11 13:22.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU CougarsCFB Notre Dame -10.5Nasty Number Notre Dame by 10 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Notre Dame by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Notre Dame by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +313 23¢ | -404 79¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -114 | 47 -107 | +310 | -413 |
All 20 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +313 23¢ | -404 79¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | +330 | -435 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | +320 | -400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +10.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | +330 | -435 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | +330 | -455 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | +10 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +300 | -400 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -107 | 47.5 -109 | +340 | -440 |
| Courtside | +10.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -115 | 47.5 -106 | +315 | -410 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -106 | 46.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +340 | -469 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -114 | 47 -107 | +310 | -413 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | +320 | -500 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars+10.5 -107edge -0.6%
- DraftKings+10.5 -110edge -1.3%
- BetMGM+10.5 -112edge -1.8%
- FanDuel +1+10.5 -115edge -2.4%
- DraftKings Predictions+10.5 -138 (56¢ on the app)edge -6.9%
- Caesars+340edge -0.5%
- DraftKings +1+320edge -1.5%
- FanDuel +1+315edge -1.8%
- Fanatics+310edge -2.1%
- DraftKings Predictions+285 (24¢ on the app)edge -3.7%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened +12.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward BYU).
Kalshi thin: BYU Cougars +10.5, only $364 available; Notre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5, only $147 available; Over 47.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +136 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +363 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +318 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +305 |
| Market (18 books) | +10.5 | +378 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars +10.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | +340 | +349 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward BYU Cougars since 10-09 18:36; total has moved down 1.1.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at UL Monroe WarhawksCFB Louisiana Tech -14.5Nasty Number Louisiana Tech by 15 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14.5 -106 | 54.5 -111 | +469 | -704 |
All 19 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | +480 | -770 |
| BetMGM | +14.5 -108 | 54.5 -118 | +525 | -700 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | +480 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -113 | 54.5 -112 | +480 | -770 |
| BetUS | +14.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +14.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +475 | -700 |
| Caesars | +14.5 -110 | 55 -108 | +500 | -750 |
| Courtside | +14.5 -108 | 55.5 +100 | +508 | -646 |
| DraftKings | +14.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | +490 | -675 |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | +520 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +14.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +14.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +480 | -725 |
| Pinnacle | +14.5 -106 | 54.5 -111 | +469 | -704 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -669 |
| ReBet | +15.5 -114 | 55.5 -105 | +440 | -800 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings +4-14.5 -110edge -1.7%
- Kalshi-660 (86¢)edge -2.4%
- DraftKings-675edge -2.6%
- Fanatics +1-700edge -3.0%
- FanDuel +1-750edge -3.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $55 available; Under 54.5, only $88 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.5 | +690 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +593 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +580 |
| Massey | +13.0 | +434 |
| Market (17 books) | +14.5 | +627 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 61.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -14.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | -714 | -544 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Navy Midshipmen at UTSA RoadrunnersCFB UTSA -6.5Nasty Number UTSA by 7 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 6.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 55 -106 | -238 | +195 |
All 19 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -275 | +210 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -275 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -113 | 55.5 -112 | -275 | +210 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -113 | 55 -109 | -260 | +205 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -108 | 54.5 -116 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -114 | 55.5 -106 | -255 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 55 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 55 -106 | -238 | +195 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 54.5 -125 | -275 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -250 | +210 |
Marked: best for the UTSA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- DraftKings +2-6.5 -110edge -0.7%
- Caesars-6.5 -113edge -1.3%
- FanDuel-6.5 -114edge -1.5%
- BetMGM-235edge -0.6%
- Fanatics-245edge -1.4%
- DraftKings-250edge -1.9%
- FanDuel-255edge -2.3%
- Caesars-260edge -2.6%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: UTSA Roadrunners -6.5, only $468 available; Over 55.5, only $53 available; Under 55.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -167 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -279 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -296 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -260 |
| Market (17 books) | -6.5 | -226 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners -6.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | -235 | -229 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.4.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
San Jose State Spartans at UTEP MinersCFB San José State -9Nasty Number San José State by 8.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 9, the Nasty Number says San José State by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -115 | 49 -113 | +269 | -348 |
All 17 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| BetMGM | +9 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 49 -115 | +270 | -340 |
| Caesars | +8.5 -110 | 49 -108 | +295 | -380 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 48.5 -115 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +270 | -345 |
| LowVig.ag | +8.5 -104 | 48.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +285 | -370 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -115 | 49 -113 | +269 | -348 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +270 | — |
| ReBet | +9.5 -114 | 48.5 -119 | +265 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM+9 -108edge -1.6%
- DraftKings+8.5 -108edge -2.1%
- Caesars +2+8.5 -110edge -2.5%
- DraftKings Predictions+8.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -6.1%
- DraftKings +1+295edge -0.5%
- BetMGM+280edge -1.5%
- Fanatics+275edge -1.9%
- FanDuel+270edge -2.2%
- Kalshi+266 (26¢)edge -2.5%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 62°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: UTEP Miners +9.5, only $53 available; San Jose State Spartans -9.5, only $153 available; Over 48.5, only $62 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.5 | +295 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +285 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +209 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +260 |
| Market (14 books) | +9.0 | +322 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 46.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +9.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +295 | +304 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Ohio Bobcats at Sacramento State HornetsCFB Ohio -14.5Nasty Number Ohio by 14.5 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Ohio by 13 to Ohio by 14.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +490 16¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14.5 -114 | 49 -114 | +442 | -650 |
All 20 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +490 16¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -117 | 48.5 -114 | +510 | -770 |
| BetMGM | +15 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +500 | -650 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14.5 -103 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -117 | 48.5 -114 | +510 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -118 | 48.5 -115 | +510 | -835 |
| BetUS | +14.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +14.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | +450 | -650 |
| Caesars | +14.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +450 | -625 |
| Courtside | +14.5 -106 | 49.5 -103 | +471 | -600 |
| DraftKings | +14.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | +455 | -625 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +14.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 88¢ -900 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +15.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | +520 | -780 |
| LowVig.ag | +14.5 +101 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +15 -110 | 49 -110 | +500 | -752 |
| Pinnacle | +14.5 -114 | 49 -114 | +442 | -650 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +488 | -669 |
| ReBet | +15.5 -114 | 49.5 -109 | +470 | -847 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- BetMGM+15 -110edge -1.2%
- DraftKings+14.5 -108edge -1.4%
- FanDuel+15.5 -114edge -1.4%
- Caesars +1+14.5 -110edge -1.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+14.5 -132 (55¢ on the app)edge -6.4%
- FanDuel+520edge +0.1%
- BetMGM+500edge -0.4%
- Kalshi+490 (16¢)edge -0.7%
- Fanatics+475edge -1.1%
- DraftKings +1+455edge -1.8%
- 1 more at worse prices
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +14.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Ohio). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $63 available; Under 48.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +438 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +613 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +520 |
| Massey | +12.0 | +411 |
| Market (17 books) | +14.5 | +594 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +14.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +520 | +515 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Ohio Bobcats since 10-11 13:22.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Utah Utes at Colorado BuffaloesCFB Utah -16.5Nasty Number Utah by 17 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 17. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -104 | 49 -110 | +541 | -855 |
All 18 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +16.5 -109 | 49.5 -114 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetMGM | +16 -108 | 49.5 -105 | +575 | -750 |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +16.5 -109 | 49.5 -114 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetRivers | +16.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +600 | -1115 |
| BetUS | +16.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +16.5 -105 | 49 -110 | +550 | -850 |
| Caesars | +16.5 -108 | 49 -112 | +550 | -800 |
| Courtside | +16.5 -108 | 49.5 -103 | +572 | -761 |
| DraftKings | +16.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +550 | -800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +16.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 90¢ -1150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +16.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +575 | -850 |
| FanDuel | +16.5 -114 | 50.5 -105 | +550 | -820 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +16.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +600 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +16.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +560 | -901 |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -104 | 49 -110 | +541 | -855 |
| ReBet | +16.5 -109 | 49.5 -111 | +510 | -1000 |
| theScore Bet | +15.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- FanDuel-16.5 -106edge -0.4%
- BetMGM-16 -110edge -0.6%
- Fanatics +1-16.5 -110edge -1.3%
- Caesars-16.5 -113edge -2.0%
- DraftKings Predictions-16.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -4.9%
- BetMGM-750edge -2.0%
- DraftKings +1-800edge -2.7%
- FanDuel-820edge -2.9%
- Fanatics-850edge -3.3%
- DraftKings Predictions-1150 (90¢ on the app)edge -5.8%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 59°F.
Across the books: opened +14.5, now +16.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $307 available; Utah Utes ML, only $88 available; Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.5 | +932 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +568 |
| Sagarin | +11.5 | +398 |
| Massey | +19.5 | +853 |
| Market (17 books) | +16.5 | +751 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -16.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -750 | -626 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Utah Utes since 10-11 06:03; total has moved down 0.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at California Golden BearsCFB Wake Forest -9Nasty Number Wake Forest by 9 · nothing hereNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 9, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
Guido's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9 -109 | 53.5 -109 | +271 | -351 |
All 21 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -107 | 53.5 -112 | +285 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +9.5 -107 | 53.5 -112 | +285 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +285 | -385 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +9 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Caesars | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +255 | -320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -101 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +9 -109 | 53.5 -109 | +271 | -351 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +270 | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -114 | 53.5 -111 | +260 | -380 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for the California side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
- Caesars +1+9.5 -110edge -1.9%
- Fanatics+9 -110edge -2.3%
- DraftKings+9.5 -112edge -2.3%
- FanDuel+8.5 -115edge -3.9%
- DraftKings Predictions+9.5 -127 (54¢ on the app)edge -5.4%
- DraftKings +1+275edge -2.0%
- BetMGM+270edge -2.4%
- Kalshi +1+266edge -2.7%
- FanDuel+255edge -3.5%
- DraftKings Predictions+245 (27¢ on the app)edge -4.4%
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 69°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +305 |
| FPI | +12.0 | +409 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +283 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +262 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.0 | +320 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +275 | +306 | -2.0% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
The Receipts
Every pick the board posted, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
29 picks · Sep 12 to Oct 10, the old rule
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Since Oct 11 a Nasty Pick is a main book sitting off Pinnacle's number, and its receipt is closing line value against Pinnacle's close: the number we posted against where Pinnacle ended up at kickoff, with the win-loss record under it. Positive means we got the better number. The ratings-era record (the Four against the market, Sep 12 to Oct 10) stays as its own row and is never merged in. "Vs the close" is the same measure on every call the board made, every rung.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Nasty Picks since Oct 11 are stale lines, judged first on closing line value against Pinnacle's close; the ratings era (Sep 12 to Oct 10) keeps its own row. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks0-0—nothing graded yet0 games
No Nasty Picks graded yet.
Nasty Picks, ratings era (Sep 12 to Oct 10)12-16-143%-4.84 units29 games
Closing line value: -0.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 16 of 29. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
3-6 · -3.15 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs, ratings era2-250%+1.32 units4 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 2 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
1-1 · +0.40 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty8-850%-0.57 units16 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 16. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
1-1 · -0.05 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty34-3549%-3.96 units69 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 33 of 52. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
6-3 · +2.89 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 unitsGuido stale numbers0-0—+0.00 units0 games
Guido's lone numbers, a point or more off Pinnacle and the other main books, graded at Guido's own price. A private book, so these are a note on the card and never a Nasty Pick. 1 still open.
10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty
Its own record, one unit a total, graded at the number, price and book each one posted at. Not counted in the Nasty Pick record. 0-2, -2.00 units. The total closed our way on 0 of 2, -0.8 points on average. 36 posted and still to play.
The games
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (ratings era, Sep 12 to Oct 10) | 12-16-1 | 42.9% | -4.8 u | |
| Nasty Dog (ratings era) | 2-2 | 50.0% | +1.3 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 8-8 | 50.0% | -0.6 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 34-35 | 49.3% | -4.0 u | |
| Not Nasty | 273 games | — | — | no call to grade |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number, Buck's read on the game. The Cut is a main book off the sharp number. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
Nasty Picks is built and run by one person, with every build automated: the feeds, the Nasty Sauce, the picks, the grading and the publish. Picks post on a schedule, never by hand, and a posted pick freezes at its number and price. The only hand on the ledger is a dated correction, noted on the Receipts. Up since September 2026.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%. What comes out is the Nasty Number: Buck's read on the game, on every card. It tops out at Damn Near Nasty.
A main book sitting a point or more off Pinnacle's number and off the other main books, at the book's own price. The sharp number moved and this one hasn't. That's a Nasty Pick: this number, at this book, now. Under it is Damn Near Nasty (the Four against the number), or a sneaky.
Every pick graded at the number it was posted at, with closing line value against Pinnacle's close as the first number and win-loss under it. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why. The ratings era (Sep 12 to Oct 10) keeps its own row.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
The Lab
The workbench. What the results are teaching the model, what moved, and every number the board is tuned on. Nothing here is a pick.
We read 61 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 14 sit under the Cut and worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
What's changed since 4:46pm
- OffBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons dropped off. It was Baltimore Ravens +3.0.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 2.5Washington State Cougars at Oregon State Beaverstoward Oregon State Beaverswith the public
- → 1.7Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orangetoward Louisville Cardinalswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-11 14:59.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 255 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.18 | 346 |
| SP+ | 11.23 | 230 |
| FPI | 11.35 | 283 |
| Massey | 11.50 | 225 |
| Sagarin | 12.30 | 336 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 229 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 225 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 176 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 255 |
The line archive, 346 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 182 times, against it 120, and sat still 44. Our side taken at the open finished 0.68 points better than the close on average over 328 games. The close misses the final by 11.13, the open by 11.41, our raw ratings number by 12.39, Pinnacle's close by 11.10. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.95, MyBookie.ag 11.10, Pinnacle 11.10.
The Cut tracker. 19 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 4 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 3-2, +0.80 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 6; picks that got there by none: 5-6, -0.35 units, +0.1 pts vs the close on 7; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 3-5, -1.75 units, -0.8 pts vs the close on 7.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 51 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.51 | 51 |
| The market | 9.60 | 68 |
| Sagarin | 9.85 | 68 |
| nfelo | 9.96 | 67 |
| FPI | 10.06 | 52 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 50 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 51 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 51 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 50 |
The line archive, 68 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 37 times, against it 20, and sat still 11. Our side taken at the open finished 0.70 points better than the close on average over 63 games. The close misses the final by 9.79, the open by 9.76, our raw ratings number by 9.96, Pinnacle's close by 9.81. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 8.11, Polymarket 8.90, Bally Bet 9.35.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 173 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 70 times, against it 46, average 0.34 points; the full board kept the side 70 times, flipped 4, went quiet 99.
Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty. Judged on where the total went after we read it, not on the final score, which is far too noisy to learn from in a week. NFL: 0 totals read inside the window and finished; posted 0-1, -1.00 units. The bar (3 points) and the window (12 hours) are set by this number.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 0% | 307 | 11.72 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 307 | 11.65 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 307 | 11.51 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 307 | 11.20 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why totals are never a Nasty Pick. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. So totals post in their own section, Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty, against the opener where the lab found an edge, graded in their own record, never as a Nasty Pick.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 312 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 73 | 10.04 |
| The market | 420 | 10.92 |
| Massey | 282 | 11.14 |
| FPI | 341 | 11.17 |
| SP+ | 230 | 11.23 |
| Sagarin | 410 | 11.89 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 179-168 | 52% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 11-14 | 44% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 15-18 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 946,183 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.27 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 506 | 1.50 |
| FanDuel | 527 | 1.50 |
| Kalshi | 293 | 1.47 |
| betPARX | 301 | 1.43 |
| BetRivers | 509 | 1.42 |
| Bally Bet | 301 | 1.42 |
| ReBet | 311 | 1.39 |
| MyBookie.ag | 392 | 1.35 |
| LowVig.ag | 481 | 1.31 |
| BetOnline.ag | 493 | 1.30 |
| Courtside | 279 | 1.27 |
| theScore Bet | 309 | 1.22 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 289 | 1.22 |
| BetUS | 388 | 1.22 |
| Fanatics | 458 | 1.22 |
| BetMGM | 486 | 1.21 |
| Bovada | 458 | 1.18 |
| Caesars | 444 | 1.12 |
| Guido | 433 | 1.12 |
| Polymarket | 117 | 1.11 |
| BetAnything | 237 | 1.11 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 62 | 1.10 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 62 | 1.09 |
| Pinnacle | 484 | 1.08 |
| Fliff | 272 | 0.96 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- FPI NFL updated 2 days ago
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
- SP+ updated today
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated today
Under the hood
38 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 173 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 70 of 173 moved our way, average +0.3 points, and the full board kept the side 70 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 99. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida at Texas | Texas -9.8 | -9.8 | -9.6 | -0.2 | no call |
| Fresno State at San Diego State | San Diego State +9.2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | -0.2 | no call |
| Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | Georgia Tech Yellow +9.2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | -0.3 | no call |
| Kansas at Kansas State | Kansas +8 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | same side |
| Louisville at Syracuse | Syracuse +13 | 13 | 13 | +0.0 | same side |
| North Carolina at Duke | Duke Blue -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.2 | +0.0 | no call |
| Notre Dame at BYU | BYU +12 | 12 | 11 | +1.0 | no call |
| Ohio State at Indiana | Indiana +4 | 4 | 4 | +0.0 | same side |
| Oklahoma State at Houston | Houston -3.6 | -3.6 | -4.3 | +0.7 | same side |
| Penn State at Michigan | Penn State Nittany +6.1 | 6.1 | 6.4 | -0.3 | same side |
| Pittsburgh at Boston College | Pittsburgh -6.9 | -6.9 | -6.5 | -0.4 | same side |
| Virginia at SMU | Virginia +8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | +0.0 | same side |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 297 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 234 | 13.4 | 76-91 (46%) | 50-51 (50%) |
| Massey | 235 | 12.9 | 50-68 (42%) | 22-33 (40%) |
| The blend | 239 | 12.9 | 56-63 (47%) | 23-32 (42%) |
NFL, 64 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 60 | 10.9 | 16-21 (43%) | 6-9 (40%) |
| FPI | 57 | 10.5 | 12-7 (63%) | 7-2 (78%) |
| The blend | 60 | 10.3 | 12-10 (55%) | 3-4 (43%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 25 | 56% | 48% |
The 55-60% band is off its prediction by more than 8 points across 25 bets, so the probability conversion needs a look.